Reds are proving one ugly number doesn't tell the whole story

Save for perhaps the reeling Chicago Cubs, the Cincinnati Reds are currently the NL Central's most disappointing team. Cincinnati (32-36) is currently occupying the NL Central cellar, and they're more than 10 games back of the first-place Milwaukee Brewers.

The Reds' -57 run differential is the second-worst in the entire National League behind only the hapless Colorado Rockies. That number portends an expected record of 28-40, hinting that the team's last-place standing may not be entirely because of the strength of the NL Central.

Yet the Reds continue to outplay their expected wins and losses, which isn't normally sustainable over the long haul but can be accomplished within the confines of a single season. Perhaps with some additional luck — and better health — this ship can still be righted.

Reds' season will be defined by the health and production of their stars

Part of the issue facing the Reds is that no part of their overall operation is currently carrying the team. The offense ranks 21st in runs scored, the rotation ranks 23rd in ERA, and the bullpen ranks 29th in fWAR.

In order to solve their problem, the Reds' stars need to play like stars. Elly, De La Cruz, Chase Burns and Sal Stewart have lived up to the billing, but otherwise, Cincinnati is waiting for their other top contributors to wake up.

Eugenio Suárez is currently working with a career-low 73 wRC+, Tyler Stephenson has a .654 OPS, Brady Singer and Nick Lodolo both have an ERA above 5.00, and relievers Tony Santillan and Emilio Pagán have combined for -1.1 fWAR.

Simply put, that type of performance is unacceptable, and it puts the onus on mid-level players like JJ Bleday and Sam Moll to keep exceeding all expectations just to keep the team afloat.

Better health is part of the equation as well. De La Cruz was in the midst of his long-awaited star turn prior to a hamstring injury, while frontline starter Hunter Greene hasn't pitched all season due to an elbow surgery. Both are expected back in the near future, though the team can't afford for them to be rusty upon their return — they need to be elite right away.

Given the Reds' lackluster offensive output and run-prevention problems, Cincinnati probably shouldn't be anywhere near the playoff race. Yet here they are, just three games out the final Wild Card spot in the National League. If the Reds want to take advantage of this fortune, it'll be up to the faces of the franchise to propel them out of this rut.

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