Reds prospect Cam Collier is healthy again, but one crucial thing hasn’t shown up

There was a time, very recently, when it looked like the Cincinnati Reds’ No. 4 overall prospect Cam Collier was about to make the leap.

Coming off a breakout 2024 campaign where he slashed .248/.355/.443 with 20 home runs and 74 RBI across 119 games, it appeared that Collier had finally tapped into the loud power scouts had long projected. The contact was harder and the breakout buzz was real.

But the momentum hit a wall when Collier tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his thumb while applying a tag during a spring training game against the Chicago Cubs on March 2. The injury kept him off the field for more than two months — a frustrating setback, but not enough to completely derail a full season. But certainly enough to disrupt his rhythm and delay what many hoped would be a launchpad year.

Reds prospect Cam Collier is healthy again, but his power stroke hasn’t come with him

Since returning to action in May, Collier has looked healthy. In fact, he’s produced encouraging numbers across three levels, slashing .287/.413/.401 over 59 games. He’s walking more, striking out less, and showing a more mature plate approach. That part of the game is clearly trending up.

But the pop is missing entirely. Collier has hit just two home runs since returning, one in rookie ball, and one at High-A. Across 38 games in Double-A, he’s failed to leave the yard, despite slashing a solid .258/.396/.336 with 19 RBI. The on-base percentage remains healthy, and his plate discipline (0.83 BB/K) is among the best in the Reds system. But the power outage is loud and more confusing.

What’s even more puzzling is that this isn’t an entirely new pattern. In 2022 and 2023 combined, Collier hit only eight home runs. But context matters as he was just 17 and 18 years old then, adjusting to pro ball while playing against much older competition. The power spike in 2024 felt like proof that things had clicked.

Now, at 20 years old and still among the youngest players at Double-A, it’s unclear whether this season’s power outage is injury-related, developmental, or perhaps both.

Thumb injuries are notorious for sapping a hitter’s power, especially to the pull side. It’s possible Collier is still building back full confidence and strength in his swing. It’s also possible he’s simply emphasizing contact and zone control, focusing on quality at-bats over impact. The latter wouldn’t be a bad thing, especially for a young hitter still learning the game’s finer points.

But the longer the home run drought lingers, the more it’ll invite scrutiny. After all, power is what made Collier such a tantalizing prospect in the first place.

Still, there’s no need to panic. This is a 20-year-old with one of the better hit tools in the Reds system, a patient approach, and a professional mindset. He won’t turn 21 until November. There’s time.

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