Reds pitching prospect with the highest long-term value won't be Rhett Lowder

A former first-rounder who enticed teams with a triple-digit fastball and good command who is finally knocking on the door to the majors should be the name on everyone’s lips. But Chase Petty has flown under the radar since being drafted out of high school by the Minnesota Twins in 2021.

First overshadowed by fellow prep draftee Jackson Jobe and now fighting for room in the Cincinnati Reds’ crowded rotation picture, Petty may be on the verge of carving out his own place in the game.

Petty, who joined the Reds organization in the Sonny Gray trade, shifted from top dog to underdog as Cincinnati drafted Rhett Lowder (2023) and then Chase Burns (2024). A right arm strain in 2022 kept Petty on a tight leash as other prospects developed and surpassed him in the rankings. Finally, the right-hander is healthy, confident, and ready to compete for a roster spot.

Once an overlooked Reds prospect Chase Petty may have surpassed Rhett Lowder

Petty worked three quality starts to close out his time at Double-A Chattanooga in 2024, and as a result he is gaining wider recognition. FanGraphs listed him as the 42nd-best prospect in baseball, nine spots ahead of Lowder. While Petty’s rise may surprise fans who are high on Lowder, the former may adapt better to a long career in the majors.

In fact, Petty’s adaptability is one of the key qualities that may have pushed him ahead of Lowder and other prospects. He bounced back from injury, learned how to dominate without hitting 100 mph, and adjusted his approach. He has two outstanding pitches — his fastball and slider — and can use his changeup and cutter effectively. Lowder relies on a three-pitch mix.

Sure, Petty may not rack up the double-digit strikeout performances that Lowder and Burns seem destined for. Instead, he will keep the ball on the ground and in the park, keys to success at GABP. He’ll keep runners off base with his advanced command, and he’ll eat innings. He completed at least five innings in 10 of his final 12 starts of 2024. 

These qualities look like a solid No. 3 starter, so while he might not have the ceiling of the flamethrowing Wake Forest products, Petty could have a higher floor. As a result, he might become the best prospect in the Reds’ system.

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