Reds' PECOTA projections elicit laughable reactions from MLB analyst and fans alike

Are the Reds underrated heading into the season?

Cincinnati Reds infielder Matt McLain
Cincinnati Reds infielder Matt McLain | Patrick McDermott/GettyImages

Welcome to the Major League Baseball offseason where everyone has an opinion and they're all wrong. Unlike the NFL where the outcome is predetermined (I'm kidding, I think), the MLB season is filled with twists and turns that cover 162 games over a six-month period. The season is, in a word, unpredictable.

But that never stops MLB analysts, pundits, so-called experts, and fans from giving their two cents. Baseball Prospectus is a popular website that puts an emphasis on advanced analytics and sabermetrics. Every year, PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, spits out a projected win-loss total for each team.

Reds' PECOTA projections elicit laughable reactions from MLB analyst and fans alike

While Reds fans are rarely excited to see the PECOTA projections, this year's prognostications will make the Cincinnati faithful want to laugh out loud. PECOTA's projected standings as of the first week of February forecast the Cincinnati Reds to finish 5th in the NL Central with 73.8 wins. The outlet gives the Reds a 4.4% chance to make the 2025 MLB Postseason. Are you kidding me?

FOX Sports analyst Ben Verlander chimed in on X (formerly Twitter), writing "The Reds at 5% is a joke. 50/50 at worst." It's a good bet that the majority of Reds Country shares Verlander's perspective.

Projecting Cincinnati to finish behind the Chicago Cubs is a trendy pick. The Cubs have done more during the offseason than any other team in the division and had a winning record in 2024. After watching the Milwaukee Brewers trade away their ace last season and still repeat as NL Central champs, it's hard to even argue that the Reds would finish ahead of the Brew Crew.

But the St. Louis Cardinals are rebuilding and could tear the roster down even more at a moment's notice. And the Pittsburgh Pirates projected to finish ahead of the Reds is, to quote Verlander, an absolute joke. According to PECOTA Pittsburgh's chances to make the playoffs (9.5%) are more than double that of Cincinnati. In fact, only the Athletics, Chicago White Sox, Miami Marlins, and Colorado Rockies have less of a chance to make the MLB Postseason.

The Reds' playoff chances should be somewhere closer to 30%, if not higher, simply because they play in the weakest division in baseball. The NL Central is devoid of a top-tier team, yet the Cubs have nearly a 90% chance to make the playoffs. Make it make sense.

The Reds didn't make a blockbuster trade or free agent splash this offseason, but hiring Terry Francona as the team's new manager is arguably the biggest acquisition of the entire offseason. Add to that the trades for Brady Singer, Gavin Lux, and Jose Trevino, plus the addition of Austin Hays, and the Reds are already better on paper than the team that finished 2024 with 77 wins and were 15-28 in one-run games.

I'm sure the Reds players and fans alike can't wait for the 2025 season to begin, if for no other reason, than to prove the doubters wrong.

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