Reds outfield plan makes Ian Happ speculation feel forced

Move over Kyle Schwarber, another Chicago Cubs first-round pick with a long history of raking in Great American Ball Park is set to become a free agent in a year's time.

Ian Happ may not be an Ohio native like Schwarber, but he has made a similar habit out of beating up on Cincinnati Reds pitchers. Throughout his nine-year career, the left fielder has hit .271 with 32 home runs and 88 RBI in 128 games against the Reds.

Marquee Sports contributor Bruce Levine of 670 The Score recently linked Happ to his longtime division rival amid discussions about the Cubs' failure to sign him to an extension. On the surface, the connection makes sense. But Happ will be a 32-year-old corner outfielder by the time he reaches free agency. Does that really fit what the Reds are looking to invest in?

Ian Happ isn't the marquee free-agent the Reds have been looking for

Happ, a switch-hitting outfielder who has won four consecutive Gold Gloves in left field, is quite good at what he does. He's been worth about 3.0 fWAR in each of those seasons, and in the same span his wRC+ has never fluctuated more than four points from 120. He's above average in nearly every aspect of the game and is consistent on a year-to-year basis.

But he's also not in the mold of Schwarber — a player who can change the tune of an entire lineup. The Reds seem to have a need in left field, but signing Happ could block top prospect Héctor Rodriguez. Even if Rodriguez flounders in 2026 or isn't ready for The Show by 2027, some combination of JJ Bleday, Dane Myers, and Will Benson can probably hold down the fort.

The Reds don't have the best track record when it comes to signing former Cubs players in free agency. Nick Castellanos turned in an All-Star campaign in 2021, but he struggled badly in 2020 and left Cincinnati after just two years. Jeimer Candelario's disastrous contract is still bogging down the team's books.

Most of Candelario's salary will get wiped next offseason, and the Reds will free up about $20 million once Eugenio Suárez and Caleb Ferguson reach free agency. Nevertheless this is a young team built around a young pitching staff. Unless the front office is convinced that Happ is the missing piece to the championship puzzle (he isn't), why not use those savings on more premium positions?

This Reds-Happ connection just feels like a surface-level one; a player with a strong history in any stadium will naturally be attached to the team that plays there. In reality, though, the fit between both parties doesn't make a whole lot of sense.