The Cincinnati Reds lost yet another series to the Milwaukee Brewers this week, and if they're not careful, history will repeat itself once again when Terry Francona takes his club on the road to southeastern Wisconsin early next week.
Much like the St. Louis Cardinals of years past, the Brewers have become the Reds' kryptonite. Cincinnati is a staggering 47-78 (.376) against Milwaukee since 2018. That's an astounding (and embarrassing) statistic.
The Reds can always use the 'small-market excuse' when they come up short against the big spenders like the New York Yankees or the Los Angeles Dodgers. So what's they're excuse when it comes to the Brewers? Here's a hint: there isn't one.
The Brewers, as an organization, do almost everything right. During those eight seasons of dominance over the Reds, the Brewers have been to the playoffs seven times, and are well on their way to making it eight. Milwaukee has won the NL Central division five times during that span, and have done so with one of lowest payrolls in all of baseball.
Reds fans may not admit it, but they'd love nothing more than to see their favorite team behave just like the Brewers. Well, maybe it's time to do just that, and it starts at the top.
How can the Reds finally unseat the Brewers atop the NL Central?
The Brewers hired David Stearns as the team's GM in September of 2015. Milwaukee finished that year with a 68-94 record. The 2016 season didn't offer much of an improvement with the team finishing just five games better (73-89).
But in 2017, the Brewers fininshed with a winning record (86-76). During the following offseason, they swung a huge trade with the Miami Marlins to acquire future NL MVP Christian Yelich and won the NL Central (96-67). Milwaukee advanced to the National League Championship Series that year and did so again last season with numerous postseason berths in between.
The Brewers are 677-518 (.566) since 2018, and the only year they finished below .500 was during the pandemic-shortened season in 2020. That's where Reds fans want to be, right? Then why not follow the Brewers' blueprint?
What does that mean? Well, for starters, the Reds need to overhaul the front office. Nick Krall, Brad Meador, and almost every other high-ranking member of Cincinnati's braintrust needs to be relieved of their duties. Krall's been part of the Reds' machine since 2002 and Meador's been around since 2009. It's time for some new blood at the top.
After that, the Reds need to begin selling some of their assets before they lose all value. Cincinnati's leadership is famous for clinging to forgotten heroes of the past. Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, and Johnny Cueto are all prime examples. Had the Reds decided to trade those players sooner, they'd have reaped much richer rewards.
This type of mindset can be hard for fans to accept. The Brewers traded away players like All-Star closer Josh Hader, NL Cy Young Award-winner Corbin Burnes, and just last winter they dealt Rookie of the Year finalist Caleb Durbin to the Boston Red Sox. In return, however, Milwaukee received some valuable pieces that they've been able to rely on to help keep the ship afloat.
For the Reds, this would mean perhaps parting with popular players like Spencer Steer or Noelvi Marte at this year's trade deadline. A player like JJ Bleday, who's putting up All-Star numbers in 2026, would bring back quite the haul this summer.
Nevertheless, with Krall and Co. at the wheel, those three aforementioned players, and so many others will be declared off limits at the trade deadline. The Brewers are unlikely to declare any player untouchable, though they certainly have some players who are close to that tier.
Milwaukee is also able to evaluate young talent, and then secure them on long-term contracts before they attain superstar status. Cincinnati hasn't extended one of their core players since agreeing to terms with Hunter Greene in 2023, and that needs to change.
Finally, after assembling a fearless front office and gathering top talent, it's about execution. This was an area that Francona and his coaching staff were supposed to fix. Milwaukee plays a fundamentally-sound version of baseball. Frankly, it's the style of play that most Reds fans would enjoy watching. The Brewers players are always hustling for doubles, busting it down the first-base line, hitting the cut-off man, and playing error-free baseball.
Reds fans have seen mental mistakes and fielding errors cost their favorite team time and time again — regardless of who the manager is. As a small-market team, you can't outspend your opponent. But you can outwork them. Francona uses the term 'clean baseball'. That's the right attitude, but unfortunately his teams haven't really lived up to that standard.
Sadly, the Reds may have wasted one of their best chances to win the division since 2012. With a future Hall of Fame manager at the helm, a superstar on pre-arb contract, and highly-touted starting rotation, the Reds were poised to make noise in 2026. Instead, it looks like they'll be (partial) sellers at the deadline once again. Rinse and repeat.
If the Cincinnati Reds ever want to be taken seriously, they might want to start taking their cues from their division rivals. The Milwaukee Brewers seem to have figured out how to not only survive, but thrive in this environment despite not have abundant resources at their disposal. Maybe the Reds should do the same.
