Reds need Rhett Lowder to fix one glaring problem this offseason

Once the offseason begins, the Cincinnati Reds rotation faces some major questions. With Hunter Greene set to miss all of the 2027 season and Brady Singer entering free agency, the only names that can be written in ink are Chase Burns, Andrew Abbott, and Nick Lodolo.

That's a good start, but there are also massive holes in the No. 4 and 5 spots. The Reds' thin pitching depth in the upper minor leagues means a free-agent signing, most likely a reunion with either Singer or Nick Martinez could be on the horizon.

But even such a signing would leave the Reds with an open spot in the rotation. That's (hopefully) where Rhett Lowder comes in. But after getting knocked around by the Los Angeles Dodgers during his last start and the Milwaukee Brewers before that, a clear problem has emerged.

Lowder hasn't become a true strikeout pitcher. While a pitcher can find success with a lot of ground balls and weak contact as their primary method of attack, generating some swings and misses helps to keep hitters honest. That's been a problem for Lowder.

The Reds need Rhett Lowder to develop a swing-and-miss pitch this offseason

Lowder finished his start against the Dodgers with just five whiffs. He gave up seven runs over 3⅓ innings and yielded an average exit velocity of 92.6 mph. Yikes.

That's been Lowder's story for much of the season. The young right-hander has a meager 18.6% whiff rate, ranking in the bottom 10% in the league. Hitters rarely expand the zone as he generates chases just 26.9% of the time; among the bottom 15% in the league.

These two stats go hand-in-hand. Hitters are more likely to make contact with pitches over the plate, and if he's not getting them to go fishing, he's going to get hit; and sort of contact is more than likely going do damage.

A closer look at Lowder's arsenal shines a light on the root of the problem, but also on the solution. He has a five-pitch repertoire, but really leans on four different offerings: sinker, four-seamer, slider, and changeup. His curveball is basically a show-me pitch that he breaks out every once in a while.

By run value, his sinker is a pretty decent pitch. He's been worth two runs this year and helps him get grounders, but it carries a 6.7% whiff rate, and batters are hitting .293 against it. It's fine to work off of, but it's not going to fix the problem.

Lowder's real issue is with his secondary offerings. He uses his four-seamer less frequently than his sinker, and without elite velocity, it's not going to get the swings and misses he needs. But it's Lowder's slider (-10 run value) and his changeup (-5 run value) where his biggest problems lie.

The good news, however, is that while Lowder's slider has yielded a .279 batting average against, he's posting a 31.7% whiff rate. When he's getting swings and misses and strikeouts, it's usually his slider that's getting the job done. On top of that, the pitch has an expected batting average of .228. Basically, the struggles have been due to some bad luck and a few too many mistakes with the pitch.

The changeup isn't as dominant, but it has some promising features as well. He gets whiffs 24.1% of the time with the pitch, and it yields a hard-hit rate of just 25%. It could become a weapon against lefties.

Lowder's biggest offseason work isn't going to come with these offerings themselves, but rather improving the location — particularly the slider — which sometimes is thrown middle-middle all too often.

Lowder's had success in the majors, posting a 3.18 ERA through the first month of the season. He also put together a four-game stretch from late-July to mid-August in which he posted a 3.22 ERA.

Reds fans were hoping Lowder was going to ride that wave down the stretch. That hasn't happened (yet), but at this point, the concerns should be centered on offseason work that sees him enhance his swing-and-miss with the slider and changeup. If he can do that, the Reds will be in a good spot.

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