Reds must rethink everything if they want Elly De La Cruz to commit long term

The Cincinnati Reds would've loved to lock Elly De La Cruz up long-term with a franchise-record contract, but so far, it isn't in the cards. It's not time to panic or start dreaming up trade packages. The Reds still have time to negotiate with their franchise centerpiece, and may even benefit from waiting until the new CBA becomes finalized next offseason (hopefully without a work stoppage).

Changes in the market, however, show that Cincinnati has to think outside-the-box to get De La Cruz to commit. The star shortstop is repped by Scott Boras, who is notoriously a tough customer when it comes to extensions. He knows the value of an open-market bidding war, rejecting the Washington Nationals' 15-year, $440 million extension offer only to reel in $765 million from the New York Mets a few short years later.

De La Cruz, of course, isn't on the same plane as Soto, but the newly-minted 24-year-old is both super young and one of the most dynamic players in the sport. He's only going to get better in the years to come, and by virtue of playing a premium position, stands to cash in big time. Still, there are ways to get a deal done, but it will require both creativity and concessions. Here are a few things the Reds can do.

How can the Reds lure Elly De La Cruz into a long-term extension?

One big caveat here is that the next CBA could change everything. We'll have to see how things play out regarding hot-button issues like a potential end to deferred money, a salary cap, and more. Let's take that off the table for the purposes of this discussion.

First, we don't know how much the Reds offer was other than the fact that it topped Joey Votto's 10-year, $225 million contract. De La Cruz is worth a good deal more. That might be strange to say, given the fact that Votto should be a Hall of Famer, but when we're talking about market forces, there's a lot to consider.

Votto's deal came in 2012. Simply breaking the franchise record doesn't mean that they offered De La Cruz more buying power than they gave their legendary first baseman nearly 14 years ago. Adjusted for inflation, $225 million is worth roughly $315 million utilizing 2025 figures. Anything less than that figure means Cincinnati actually offered a lower present-day value.

Second, the most comparable player to sign an extension would be Bobby Witt Jr. The Kansas City Royals shortstop signed his 11-year, $288.7 million contract prior to his otherworldly 2024 campaign. At the time of signing, Witt was coming off a 5.9 fWAR campaign, while De La Cruz was coming off a 6.6 fWAR season when this offer was made last spring. Witt was 24 at the time of signing, the same age De La Cruz is now. Votto was significantly older when he agreed to stay with the Reds.

The Witt deal also includes three club options that could raise the total value to $377.7 million. It also includes opt-outs after the 2030, 2031, 2032, and 2033 seasons. Should the Royals' star opt out at the earliest point, he'll be 31, and Kansas City will have bought out only three of his free-agent years.

As fans have seen this winter, clubs and players alike have valued short-term flexibility over long-term commitments. Players like Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso have cashed in more by taking short-term deals followed by five-year commitments versus the longer-term offers they had previously rejected. Big names like Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette have prioritized high-AAVs and the chance to test the market a second time in their primes over lower-AAV security.

If the Reds could follow the blueprint and perhaps move the opt-outs up a year, they might create an enticing package. A $320 million offer (to beat Votto's deal adjusted for inflation) over 11 years could be a reasonable number.

The Reds could keep the salaries reasonably low during De La Cruz's arbitration years, giving them a win, and allow him to opt out and test the market again as he enters his age-30 season to give him another shot to score a huge payday could be enticing enough. Throw in three club options, a la Witt, on the back end that allows Cincinnati control to keep him around when he's in his twilight and this could work.

In that scenario, the Reds would only be buying out two free-agent years. That's okay. They'll keep De La Cruz throughout most of his prime, and they'll be able to manage the cash they spend on him each season through that point to keep it affordable. You gotta give something to get something, and this could be what it takes for both sides to begrudgingly accept.