Reds missing on Kyle Schwarber exposes a harsh truth fans hate to admit

Kyle Schwarber going back to Philadelphia on a reported five-year, $150 million deal isn’t just another “oh well, small-market life” moment for Cincinnati Reds fans. It’s a bright, blinking billboard for a reality this fanbase has known in its gut for a long time but hates saying out loud: the Reds are never winning a bidding war for a star in his prime. Not now. Not in this economic setup. Not against a team like the Phillies that treats the luxury tax like a suggestion.

If the Reds want a Schwarber-level bat headlining their lineup, it’s not going to be by out-muscling Philadelphia, New York, or Los Angeles. It has to come from inside the house — draft room, player development, and extensions that happen early, before the rest of the league starts circling with open checkbooks.

Reds whiff on Kyle Schwarber and remind everyone how this market really works

Which brings us to the uncomfortable part: they may have already blown their cleanest shot with Elly De La Cruz.

There was a window, where an aggressive, “we believe in you before the numbers do” extension offer might’ve had a real chance. Buy out his arbitration years, tack on a few free-agent years, hang a giant banner downtown, and tell the baseball world you’re building everything around 44.

That window shrinks every time he flashes 40–40 upside on national TV. The more he looks like a future MVP, the closer his market value drifts toward a Schwarber-style price range or even higher. And if the Reds aren’t playing at that table for Schwarber, what are the odds they’ll sit down for Elly in his late 20s?

That’s why missing on Schwarber stings beyond the “would’ve been fun” factor. It’s a reminder that Cincinnati doesn’t just need talent; it needs timing. You can’t wait for your guys to become finished products and then decide you’d like to keep them forever. By then, you’re competing with franchises that sell out every night and treat $30 million AAV like a rounding error.

So no, the Schwarber news isn’t shocking. But it should be clarifying. The Reds’ path isn’t complicated, it’s just unforgiving: identify your stars early, bet on them before everyone else does, and lock them in. Because if you don’t, someone richer will.