Reds just learned a painful lesson with Elly De La Cruz and can’t repeat it

The Cincinnati Reds didn’t just fumble an opportunity with Elly De La Cruz — they missed the version of the opportunity that actually matters in baseball economics. The moment before a player turns into a headline.

That window was right after 2023. Not because De La Cruz had already proven everything (he hadn’t), but because that’s the point. Extensions aren’t won by waiting until you’re “sure.” The Reds had a chance to buy the future at a reasonable rate. They passed. And now they know exactly what that costs.

Once a young star becomes a face, it changes the entire math. The agent’s posture changes. The player’s confidence changes. And even if the Reds still want to keep Elly long-term, they’ve basically volunteered to negotiate on hard mode.

Reds fans probably hate hearing this, but front offices have to internalize: small-market teams don’t get to “wait and see” the way big-market teams do. The New York Yankees, New York Mets, and Los Angeles Dodgers can overpay later and call it a Tuesday. The Reds can’t treat elite young talent like a layaway plan. And that’s why the Elly lesson can’t just be a lesson. It has to become policy, and now it starts with Sal Stewart.

Reds can't allow their misstep with Elly De La Cruz to cloud their judgment with Sal Stewart

Stewart is exactly the kind of player the Reds keep saying they want to build around: a core bat, a potential lineup staple, a guy whose presence can make the next competitive window feel real instead of theoretical. He’s also exactly the kind of player whose price can jump from “team-friendly” to “good luck with that” in one season. If Stewart delivers the kind of year evaluators think he can, Cincinnati can’t do the same slow dance it did with Elly.

In 2025, Stewart basically put the Reds on notice before the “real” breakout even arrives. He tore through Double-A and Triple-A over 118 games, hitting .309/.383/.524 with 34 doubles, 20 homers, 17 steals, and 80 RBI. 

Then Cincinnati gave him a quick MLB taste in September and he popped five homers in 18 games with an .839 OPS, which is exactly how the price tag starts climbing in public. That’s why now is the moment: you extend it while there’s still just enough uncertainty to keep the deal team-friendly — before he forces the league to treat him like the next middle-of-the-order fixture.  

The Reds don’t need to wait for a perfect breakout to start talking. They need to move when there’s still uncertainty they can use as leverage. An extension doesn’t mean you’re handcuffing yourself. It means you’re choosing clarity. The Reds have spent too many seasons acting like the goal is to find stars when the actual goal is to keep enough of them long enough to matter.

De La Cruz is the proof. The Reds had the cleanest possible moment to get ahead of the curve, and they let it drift into the expensive phase. That can’t happen again with another core bat, definitely not when the blueprint is sitting right in front of them. The painful lesson is already learned. Now comes the part where they should choose not to repeat it.