Reds hitters keep failing at one thing that could help fix their offense

The ABS system has transformed baseball. What seemed like it could be a liability for players and fans alike has in fact added to the tension and excitement of the game. The Cincinnati Reds have seen the benefits of the new system as recently as this past weekend when an overturned strike three call sealed a come-from-behind win over the Minnesota Twins. Hopefully that experience will encourage Cincinnati to take advantage of the system more often.

Entering play on April 20, the Reds led the majors in one frustrating statistic: they have opted not to challenge more out-of-the-zone strikes than any other team. In other words, Cincinnati has accepted the umpire’s flawed verdict and paid the price. The philosophy has cost the team valuable pitches and entire at-bats. In a surprisingly tight division, the Reds need to take advantage of any opportunity afforded them.

Reds leave more ABS challenges on the table than any other team

Little stands in the way of the Reds reversing this costly trend. Manager Terry Francona, though old school, changed his stance on ABS this spring. Hitters and catchers seem to have the green light to challenge when appropriate.

Catcher P.J. Higgins has been among the most successful players at navigating ABS; including his challenge in the game against the Twins, he has gone a perfect 4-for-4. Reds batters have been fairly successful as well, ranking first in the NL with a 61% success rate on challenges (possibly defying the public perception gained by some questionable ABS challenges early in the season). The players know the zone. They just aren’t using the system effectively.

As with any new rules, players and teams will likely have growing pains and a transitionary period. So far, batters across the league seem to view ABS as an escape hatch when facing a strikeout rather than a ploy to gain an extra baserunner.

Of the 30 MLB teams, 24 have reversed more strike three calls than ball four calls. Since outs are a limiting factor in baseball – you only get three per turn at bat – this makes some sense, but baserunners also generally correlate to runs, which then correlate to wins.

All this is to say that whether the Reds are preventing outs from accumulating by overturning strike three calls or increasing runners on the bases by transforming a strike into ball four, Cincinnati is leaving a lot on the table by not challenging at all.

Already the Reds, despite having a -3 run differential, have a net total of 1.4 runs gained via challenges. To maintain pace with the NL Central, the team may some ABS help.

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