Reds have two legitimate power options this offseason, but only one makes sense

With Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber off the board, we're starting to see the premier power bats dry up. While several superstars like Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, and Bo Bichette are still hanging out there, power is a secondary part of those players' games, and none of them would fit into the Cincinnati Reds' budget.

However, there are two mid-tier options the Reds could afford: Ryan O'Hearn and prodigal son Eugenio Suarez. While Cincinnati could afford to bring one of them in, at least in theory, only one of them is a true fit, and the reasons are complicated. Positionally, the Reds' biggest need is in the outfield. Suarez has never played outside of the infield, and if he moves off the hot corner, the logical landing spot is first base. O'Hearn has some experience in each outfield corner. Case closed, right?

Not so fast. Suarez is actually the better fit, but it has little to do with defensive alignment.

Eugenio Suarez and Ryan O'Hearn are the best two targets left for the Reds, but Suarez is the one that they should pursue

First, let's talk about O'Hearn, the outfielder. While he has played out there, his clubs have only used him out in the grass sparingly. Between both right and left field, O'Hearn has logged only 733 defensive innings for his career, which is a tad more than a half-season of work. In that time, he's posted a poor -3 outs above average.

Going with O'Hearn doesn't free up the positional logjam the Reds have at the infield corners because he's not much more than an emergency outfielder, similar to Spencer Steer. But the real reason why Suarez is the correct choice has to do with the bat. O'Hearn has been sold as the budget version of Kyle Schwarber, but in reality, that's not the case.

O'Hearn struggled mightily before breaking out in 2023 with the Baltimore Orioles, but the underlying data shows he hasn't been truly consistent year in and year out. For example, he posted a career-low 4.1% walk rate in 2023, but instead leveraged a 94th percentile hard hit rate and an 89th percentile average exit velocity to power his way to a 118 wRC+.

However, in 2024, O'Hearn once again posted a 118 wRC+, but got there in a very different fashion. He upped his walk rate to 9.3%, cut his strikeouts from 22.3% to 14%, and saw his hard hit rate drop to the 49th percentile, and his average exit velocity drop to the 59th percentile. Aside from the walks, it was a lot of contact that went for singles thanks to his 79th percentile squared-up percentage and his 84th percentile whiff rate.

Then, in 2025, O'Hearn's profile changed again. The strikeouts climbed back to 20%, the hard hit balls still didn't return, but this time he whiffed more often, posting a 59th percentile mark, and he posted a squared-up rate in just the 52nd percentile. These constant fluctuations in the underlying metrics make it seem like the bottom could fall out at any time.

Meanwhile, with Geno, you know what you're going to get, and that is tremendous raw power. Suarez tied his career high with 49 homers last season, and per Statcast's x-HR, he would have hit 54 playing in Great American Ball Park.

It goes without saying that Suarez's power numbers in 2025 were no fluke, but his 28.6% pulled air percentage last season was well above the league average of 16.7%, meanwhile, at 14.4% O'Hearn was significantly below average. Power is the number one thing that Cincinnati needs, and Suarez brings it in droves, while O'Hearn has typically been average to slightly below average in the pop department.

Neither is a true fit defensively, but if the Reds were willing to have Schwarber as a full-time DH, then they should have no problem with Suarez filling that role either. Lastly, in reuniting with Suarez, they'd keep him away from the rival Chicago Cubs, killing two birds at the same time.