Reds' greatest pitching strength may become a weakness as the season wears on

Over Hunter Greene’s first four starts, the ace earned praise for his dominance and control. His standout performances have put him in the company of Hall of Famers and Cy Young Award winners. As importantly, he’s been pitching late into games, saving the Reds’ bullpen arms and keeping his team in contention. That, though, could eventually turn into Cincinnati’s downfall.

Heading into Saturday's start versus the Baltimore Orioles, Hunter Greene is already ⅕ of the way toward his average inning load. In his first three seasons, he has completed, on average, 129 ⅓ innings per year.

He surpassed 150 innings pitched for the first time in his professional career in 2024 despite missing half of August and most of September with an elbow injury. If the Reds want him to pitch deep into games now, they may have to consider the fact that Greene’s durability may be an issue down the line.

Hunter Greene’s ability to eat innings early in the season may set the Reds up for disappointment later on

Greene is not the only starter with durability concerns. Nick Lodolo’s injury history is a mile long; he has only completed 100 innings twice since turning pro in 2019. In fact, entering this season, Lodolo had pitched more innings over three college seasons than in his three years in the majors. Similarly, Andrew Abbott has been beset by shoulder injuries over the past two years. He missed a shot at the Opening Day lineup due to a rotator cuff strain.

Nick Martinez and Carson Spiers have split time between the rotation and the bullpen, which has saved their arms to some extent, but they have had little success so far in 2025. Their time on the staff may be cut short in favor of Rhett Lowder or some of the other Reds prospects.

The only player in the Reds’ starting rotation that has consistently stayed healthy and productive over his career is newcomer Brady Singer. The right-hander, who has one more year of arbitration left, has surpassed 130 innings every year since he was drafted in 2018 (aside from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season), and he set a career high with 179 ⅔ innings pitched in 2024.

If the Reds hope to succeed, they will need that kind of production. Sure, the team has a flock of prospects on the way, but those young arms are volatile. If Greene stays healthy and Singer continues to put in work, this team will be in much better shape.

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