Reds get encouraging Tyler Stephenson contract forecast but questions remain

There's been an ongoing debate since the 2026 season ended centered around whether or not Tyler Stephenson will return to the Cincinnati Reds next year. But the latest contract projection reveal that this might be more about a desire to reunite in 2027 rather than the actual numbers themselves.

Jim Bowden of The Athletic recently listed Stephenson among the top-40 free agents available this offseason. The former Reds general manager mentioned Cincinnati among the likely destinations, along with the Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers, and Los Angeles Angels, and predicted he'll be able to land a two-year deal worth $16 million.

That seems like a fair offer for an offensive-minded catcher who's one of the best blockers in the league, and someone you can pencil in for double-digit home runs ever year. Interestingly, Bowden listed fellow free-agent backstop Ryan Jeffers a notch below Stephenson's projection at two years and $15.5 million. Jeffers offers more offensive upside, but isn't near the defender Stephenson is behind the dish.

An $8 million AAV for a veteran catcher like Stephenson seems more than reasonable, doesn't it? It's right in line with the likes of Victor Caratini, Danny Jansen, and Carson Kelly.

The Reds put a high price on Stephenson at the August 3 deadline, suggesting they value what he brings to the team. Stephenson got incredibly emotional during an on-field interview just before last summer's deadline, indicating a fondness he has for the city of Cincinnati, the Reds organization, and his teammates. So why haven't the two sides come together on a new deal?

What's preventing the Reds from signing Tyler Stephenson?

This is beginning to feel like one of those awkward teenage romances. You know, the whole "I like you, but I don't love you" type of thing. Neither side seems ready to cut the cord, but both are afraid to commit as well.

For their part, the Reds have high hopes for Alfredo Duno. The organization's top prospect has the makings of becoming Cincinnati's next big thing, but most scouts agree he needs at least one more year before being handed the reins. Jose Trevino is under contract through 2027 and has a option for 2028, but he's little more than a backup at this stage of his career.

Stephenson doesn't want to sell himself short. He's arguably the top catcher on the market this winter, and with so few options, another organization may be willing to commit beyond the two-year contract Bowden proposed. Spotrac estimates Stephenson will sign a four-year, $46 million deal. But an $11.6 million AAV seems wildly optimistic.

So what should Reds fans expect once free agency opens next week? The most likely scenario will be for Stephenson to field as many offers as possible and give Cincinnati a chance to match the highest bid. If the Reds refuse, we have our answer.

This whole process has felt odd from the very beginning — long before Stephenson even entered his final year of arbitration. Seeing as how he's the top backstop available this winter, Stephenson will likely have a new deal in place before the lockout on December 1.

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