Reds’ first call after Emilio Pagán’s exit should be to this unexpected free agent

Although free agent Emilio Pagán has been very vocal about his desire to return to the Cincinnati Reds, his salary may be too much for the team's thrifty ownership to bear. Most experts expect Pagán to sign a two-year deal worth at least $20 million. If Cincinnati decides to pivot in another direction, recently released reliever Pete Fairbanks should be the first name on the Reds’ wishlist.

Fairbanks is coming off his most complete year, having pitched a career-high 60 ⅓ innings and earning 27 saves. As the Tampa Bay Rays closer, he demonstrated pinpoint control and posted his second-lowest walk rate.

Fairbanks also has postseason experience as he participated in the Rays’ World Series run in 2020 and their playoff appearances in 2021 and 2022. This blend of high-leverage stuff, efficiency, and leadership would be a perfect fit for the Reds.

Former Rays reliever may be a surprising upgrade if the Reds don't re-sign Emilio Pagán

Fairbanks was waiting to hear about his club option, which would've netted him $11 million before becoming a free agent next winter. But the Rays declined that option. The Reds also declined the options of Austin Hays, Scott Barlow, and Brent Suter, which would have totaled $21.5 million, plus Nick Martinez's salary is coming off the books. While a trade may have been easier, Cincinnati can still make this work.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, Fairbanks is predicted to sign a two-year, $18 million contract. That's definteily a number of the Reds could afford. He’s a closer, which are highly valuable players. Fairbanks is somewhere between Ryan Helsley and Dustin May in terms of ability and reliability — both of whom were traded for prospects at last year's trade deadline. But after the Rays declined his option, they no longer control his future destination, and Fairbanks will be on the lookout for the highest bidder.

The Reds may have been looking at a trade involving a couple highly ranked prospects and perhaps a little cash, but now that Fairbanks has hit free agency, it'll be cash only. If snagging Fairbanks turns into a bidding war on the free agent market, the Reds could be in the mix, but may miss out on their guy.