Reds fans should exercise caution as Rhett Lowder attempts to duplicate 2024 success

It should come as no surprise that Rhett Lowder will have to come back down to Earth eventually. The phenom marched through the minors and made his big-league debut with much fanfare in late August. He was everything the Cincinnati Reds had dreamed of. But the 2025 season may bring a rude awakening.

Just looking at Lowder’s stats should cause you some skepticism. A 1.17 ERA? Nearly 90% left on base? ZERO home runs allowed?! Among starters with at least 30 innings pitched, he places first in all three categories. Lowder is good, but he’s not that good.

Reds prospects: Fans should take Rhett Lowder’s 2024 eye-popping stats with a grain (or even a tablespoon) of salt

Let’s start with the home runs. Chris Sale led the majors in fewest homers allowed in 2024, giving up just nine in 177 ⅔ innings. He also had the benefit of pitching half his games in Truist Park, which had the NL’s fourth-lowest park factor for home runs last season. Great American Ball Park, on the other hand, ranked tops in the majors. Over a full season, Lowder will feel that discrepancy.

Luck played an outsized role in Lowder’s performance in 2024, indicating a coming regression. His actual ERA was more than three runs lower than expected, and his FIP was 1.63 lower than expected. Much of this is likely due to his hard-hit rate. More than 40 percent of balls hit off Lowder came off the bat at 95-plus mph. If players start to time up his pitches and get the barrel on the ball more often (his barrel rate of 3.3% was another exceptional stat), his actual and expected stats will fall more in line, much to his dismay.

Lowder’s fastball has also had less zip since he turned pro. It averaged 93 mph, falling in the bottom third of big-league pitchers. His secondary stuff was enough to facilitate a quick tour through the minors, but one off-night for his plus-changeup or slider could derail him.

Still, the projections are not entirely unkind to Lowder. The outlook for his sophomore season takes into account his uncertain role in the rotation/bullpen but still credits him with between 1.1 and 1.5 fWAR.

Ultimately, Lowder was never supposed to be the franchise ace, like Hunter Greene and (fingers crossed) Chase Burns. He projected as a solid No. 3 starter, and that’s what his stats will probably look like in 2025. So, if Lowder fails to blow the doors off this season, don’t blame the curse. Instead, take a second to remember and appreciate the phenomenal, if unsustainable, debut of a great Reds prospect.

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