Reds face uncomfortable roster reality after Brandon Williamson's surge

After Brandon Williamson missed all of last year while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, most Cincinnati Reds fans assumed he'd be ticketed to the open the 2026 season in Triple-A Louisville. But the 27-year-old is one more good start away from all but forcing his way back into the big leagues.

At this point, there's almost no way the Reds can leave Williamson off the Opening Day roster. In four Cactus League games covering 11 innings, the left-hander has allowed just two runs on six hits. He's struck out 13 batters and only walked two. Williamson has one more spring start before camp wraps, but at the moment, he has a sparkling 1.64 ERA.

Brandon Williamson has a solid case to make the Reds Opening Day roster

Despite Williamson's stellar spring, he still hasn't been guaranteed a spot on the Reds Opening Day roster — largely because the competition has been fierce. As good as the lanky lefty has been, Rhett Lowder and Chase Burns have both shown why they deserve a spot in the starting rotation as well.

The Reds have already announced that Andrew Abbott will be the team's Opening Day starter on March 26 against the Boston Red Sox. Nick Lodolo is expected to follow on Saturday and Brady Singer will get the ball for the opening series finale on Sunday.

But the Reds' starters for the next series against the Pittsburgh Pirates could come down to how the three pitchers in question perform this week. Cincinnati has six more Cactus League games on the calendar before the team leaves Goodyear, with Williamson, Lowder, and Burns all expected to gain one more start.

Lowder, who's arguably already locked up a spot in the rotation, has completed 12 innings this spring and owns a 3.75 ERA with 15 punch outs. So long as his next spring start doesn't mimic his last (3⅓ IP, 4H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 4 K), Lowder will punch his ticket and be on the Reds Opening Day roster.

Burns had an abbreviated outing during his trip to the mound last Friday, something that sparked injury concerns among the Reds fanbase. Cincinnati's coaching staff, however, claimed that Burns had to "de-load", throwing just 24 pitches after completing nearly 70 throws during his previous start.

Francona told Cincinnati reporter Charlie Goldsmith that the most difficult task for Williamson this spring has been preparing for a five-day routine. Williamson hasn't been a steady member of a Major League rotation since 2023, and keeping him on four-days rest is essential if he hopes to be part of the Reds Opening Day roster.

This week's results won't be the determining factor, but they certainly matter. With Hunter Greene shelved to begin the year, all three pitchers will likely be counted on at some point before the Reds' No. 1 starter returns. Who makes the Opening Day roster, however, has yet to be determined.