Reds are entering a dangerous trap series that could derail playoff hopes

By virtue of their series victory over the Chicago Cubs, the Cincinnati Reds have now eclipsed 60 wins on the season, and stand alone (with a multi-game lead) as the fourth team in the NL Wild Card chase.

Their work is far from done, however, with a gauntlet of the senior circuit's best teams on tap, including the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers.

Before that, though, the Reds need to travel on the road to Pittsburgh for what should be their easiest series for the remainder of the month. One look at the projected pitching matchups, though, will remind you that no win is guaranteed.

Reds set to face Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller in crucial series vs. Pirates

The Pirates have caught a bit of lightning in a bottle since a confounding trade deadline, with a 7-3 record in their past 10 games. That stretch of good baseball includes two losses to the perennially hapless Colorado Rockies, meaning that, since July 26, the Pirates have gone a combined 7-1 against the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants (in two different series), and the Rockies.

Now, none of those teams are the powerhouses of the NL West, though it's worth noting that the Diamondbacks series and first Giants series happened prior to their respective sell-offs at the trade deadline. The Bucs are beating relatively good teams right now, and their projected pitching rotation makes this upcoming series all the more terrifying.

In the first game against the Reds, the Pirates will trot out presumptive NL Cy Young favorite Paul Skenes, who is currently rocking a ridiculous 2.02 ERA in 138 innings this season. He's pitched against the Reds three times in his career, allowing just one earned run in 17 innings—though, all of those appearances came in 2024.

In game two, Mitch Keller will take the bump, and though he hasn't been quite as dominant as his ace running mate, he's still working a tidy 3.89 ERA in 132 innings this year. He has allowed a 5.75 ERA to the Reds in 18 career starts against them, though he was dominant in a game the Reds won back on May 19 this year (six innings pitched, one earned run allowed).

The good news is the Reds have won four of their six contests against the Pirates this year, though they lost the most recent two on May 20 and 21. That May 20 game, a 1-0 loss, was started by Bailey Falter and closed out by David Bednar, both of whom have since been traded. The May 21 affair was won by Andrew Heaney, who shockingly remains on Pittsburgh's roster but isn't lined up to pitch in the upcoming series.

Plus, in the final game of the series, the Reds draw what will amount to a bullpen game against Carmen Mlodzinski, who has a 4.21 ERA in 68 1/3 frames in 2025.

If the Reds can steal one of the first two games—Skenes somehow owns a 6-8 record this season thanks to a comical lack of run support—they should be able to escape this series with a win. But, if Skenes and Keller do their thing at home, Cincinnati could lose some valuable ground in the playoff chase.

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