Reds could select surprise hometown pick in MLB Draft to save bonus money

Although both the high school and college baseball seasons have come to their respective ends, there's still plenty of time for shuffling among players at the top of draft boards. In the weeks leading up to the MLB Draft on July 13th, draft prospects and agents will meet with big league teams to not only discuss if they will be the right fit in their organizations, but to also discuss dollar amounts.

A player's ability on the field is obviously the driving factor for how a team makes a selection, but the signing bonus plays a big role as well. Teams are only given a certain amount of money to sign their draft picks, so they often times have to make strategic money plays when selecting players. Some recent activity on the Cincinnati Reds front suggests they may be looking to do exactly that with their first-round selection this year.

Devin Taylor is a left-handed power-hitting, corner outfielder out of Indiana University. He turned 21 earlier this year and is one of the top college bats on the board in this draft. He currently ranks 30th on MLB Pipeline's draft rankings, but there is reason to believe he could be in play at ninth overall to the Reds.

Reds could select surprise hometown pick Devin Taylor in MLB Draft to save bonus money

It is one of the weaker conferences for college baseball, but Taylor is comfortably the top draft prospect coming out of the Big Ten this year. The competition he faced in his college career is likely why we haven't seen him higher up on draft boards, but the results do speak for themselves. He burst on to the scene as a freshman at Indiana in 2023, posting a 1.080 OPS, and that mark only climbed throughout his career. He was up to a 1.200 OPS this year with 18 home runs in 55 games.

His walk rate climbed year over year, going from 14.8% to 19.3%, while his strikeout rate also decreased, going from 18.9% all the way down to 11.2%. Taylor has made the necessary adjustments at the plate to really maximize his power output, which is the main tool that carries his profile. He makes consistent hard contact with the best of them, and although he hasn't posted top-end exit velocities, he has no problem getting the ball in the air to all fields.

Taylor has one of the best combinations of hit and power in this college class. The only other college bat with both an above-average hit tool and power tool on the 20-80 grading scale is Ike Irish — a no doubt top 15 pick this year. The only thing that hurts Taylor's profile is that there isn't a whole lot of athletic upside. He'll definitely stick in left field long-term, but he can't cover enough ground in center field and doesn't have the arm for right field. However, if you're betting on the bat alone, it's not crazy to select him ninth overall if you're the Reds.

The Reds have employed a similar draft strategy in the past

The Reds would likely be able to sign Taylor well below the slot value of the ninth overall pick which clocks in at $6.5 million. It's obviously the ninth highest slot value of any pick, but the Reds only have the 15th highest bonus pool. A pick that can save them money seems very likely here, and it's something they've done in the past.

In each of the last two drafts, they've went under-slot with their first round pick to save money for higher upside prep bats they like with their following picks. Given the plethora of prep talent in this year's class, especially in the infield, it's hard not to see the Reds plan unfolding.

After the first couple of prep bats come off the board (Ethan Holliday, Eli Willits, Billy Carlson, Jojo Parker), there isn't a lot of separation between the second and fourth or fifth tier of prep shortstops. The Reds could very well pass on a second tier prep shortstop at ninth overall, and land someone further down the board they feel they can provide the same value.

By the way, don't let the hometown element fool you. Taylor was born and raised in Cincinnati and has remained a midwest kid as he went to Indiana for school. That could be further incentive for him to cut a deal with the Reds. It's an exciting thing for a fan base as well — to see a local kid sign with the hometown team.

Taylor also happens to be a player fans could see in a Reds uniform sooner than later. They just saw the ability of the player development department to fly Chase Burns through the system. Taylor's advanced bat could offer them the same luxury. With all of this being said, be neither disappointed nor surprised if Devin Taylor is the name called with the ninth overall pick on July 13th.

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