Reds could regret waiting to trade Elly De La Cruz after this offseason

The time for the Cincinnati Reds to trade Elly De La Cruz is now. No, that's not a popular opinion, but it's an accurate one. The Reds have a prime opportunity to capitalize on an incredibly weak free agent class and quickly restock their farm system with an eye toward the 2028 season.

Before we get too deep into the conversation, can we all agree that it's highly unlikely the 2027 season will start on time? The impending MLB lockout threatens to delay the season, possibly reduce it, or maybe even eliminate it entirely.

In other words, Reds fans are talking about De La Cruz's future as if he's under team control for three more seasons. While that may be factually accurate, a shortened or canceled season suddenly lessens his trade value as the acquiring team may have lost a full or partial year of production.

Why trading Elly De La Cruz this offseason makes sense for the Reds

With that out of the way, let's dig a little deeper into the current crop of free agents — specifically shortstops. The best available might be former Seattle Mariners infielder J.P Crawford. After that you're probably looking at Mauricio Dubón, who's more of a utility player than a shortstop. The point being, the shortstop class is exceedingly weak, and any team looking to upgrade the position through free agency this winter is going to have a problem and will likely be looking for a trade partner.

But let's say you're focus is simply a bat, regardless of position. Your top-3 candidates are probably former Chicago Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki, former Rookie of the Year Randy Arozarena, and NLCS MVP Jake Bauers. Not necessarily a who's who of MLB stars, huh?

None of those names are going to move the needle — only Arozarena is an All-Star — and yet all three have a qualifying offer attached, meaning the teams who sign them will not only have to fork over a salary worth $20-$25 AAV, but they'll also have to sacrifice a draft pick.

Which brings us back to De La Cruz. While a trade for the Reds' superstar would require most organizations to empty half their farm system, his 2027 and 2028 salaries are likely be a fraction of what it will cost to sign a top-tier free agent this year or next.

Looking ahead, however, the Reds will have some competition next winter. Houston Astros shortstop Jeremey Peña (who could be traded this offseason) will be a free agent. Though not as talented as De La Cruz, the price tag will be manageable for a number of interested organizations. Washington Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams is one year closer to free agency, and could be dealt, and the same is true of Los Angeles Angels infielder Zach Neto.

In short, the current supply and demand favors Cincinnati. If they were to listen to offers for De La Cruz, they'd have no shortage of offers. But if the Reds wait until next winter, shortstop-needy clubs could sign Peña or trade for the likes of Abrams or Neto.

Trading Elly De La Cruz does not make the Reds better in 2027. But moving him this offseason gives Cincinnati the best chance to receive a franchise-altering trade package in return. Again, this won't be popular, but the Reds should trade De La Cruz this winter.

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