Reds could find a golden opportunity if Guardians give up on Tanner Bibee

The Cincinnati Reds will have to answer some questions about their starting rotation this offseason. No Hunter Greene for the entirety of 2027 and the potential departure of Brady Singer mean that the unit, as currently constructed, is just Chase Burns, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, and a bunch of unproven arms.

Filling out the fourth and fifth starter spots is the bare minimum that the Reds need to do. The fact that Abbott and Lodolo both had extended lackluster periods in 2026 throws some question on their abilities to be the high-end starters that they were expected to be, meaning that maybe adding someone with a higher ceiling than just a back-end starter could be important as well.

The free-agent market will be tricky. The class isn't great, and even average starting pitchers get paid a pretty penny. More than likely, that means Cincinnati has to turn to the trade market, but they might not have to look far. On the other side of Ohio, the Cleveland Guardians could present Cincinnati with a solution in the form of right-hander Tanner Bibee.

The Guardians may have telegraphed that they're moving on from Tanner Bibee, and the Reds should pounce

The case of Bibee's 2026 is an interesting one. He went from being Cleveland's Opening Day starter to an afterthought in the postseason. Somewhat controversially, the Guardians only used Bibee for 1/3 of an inning in relief, despite taking the Tampa Bay Rays to six games in the ALCS. If Cleveland couldn't find starts for Bibee in October, what does that say about their plans for him for the future?

According to Guardians manager Stephen Vogt, nothing has changed and the club still views him as the integral piece to its rotation that he seemed to be when he was signed to a five-year, $48 million extension ahead of the 2025 season.

"He was our rock in that rotation, and I don't see that role changing in '27. He's going to be a big part of our team and a big part of our rotation moving forward," Vogt told reporters during Cleveland's post-mortem press conference.

However, Vogt also acknowledged that the 27-year-old had his struggles and at times battled mechanics during the 2026 campaign. Bibee made 33 starts and threw 188 innings, but posted a 4.36 ERA and a career-worst 7.09 K/9, while watching his average fastball velocity fall from 94.4 miles per hour in 2025 to 93.9 miles per hour this year.

Vogt's excuse for Bibee's postseason playing time was also curious, with the skipper basically saying that had the team advanced to the World Series, he was sure they'd probably find a way to use Bibee. Not exactly the kind of response that drives confidence.

Bibee also had a bit of a down year in 2025. He tossed 182⅓ innings and recorded a 4.24 ERA, which was a serious step back from 2023's 2.98 mark and 2024's 3.47 performance.

Bibee hasn't gotten expensive yet, but the salary explosion is coming. After making $4.4 million in 2026, he'll get a bump to $7.4 million in 2027, before cracking eight figures with a $10.4 million salary in 2028 and a $21.4 million price tag in 2029. His deal also includes a club option of $21 million for 2030. With a 30th-ranked labor payroll of $74.5 million, every dollar matters to Cleveland, even more than Cincinnati. The Reds' labor payroll was nearly double that of the Guardians at $128 million.

For Cincinnati, Bibee's 2026 performance would be fine as a fifth starter. If he can regain his early-career form, he'd check the box of being a guy who can fit into the front of the rotation as well.

Vogt was never going to say anything other than that he expects Bibee back, but his usage of him suggests otherwise. The Guardians' actions speak much louder, which means that Bibee could be on the way out, and a trade could be in the works. That should be all the signal Nick Krall and the Reds need to pick up the phone.

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