Reds can't let this breakout free agent trap them like Jeimer Candelario did

Offensive upgrades are at the top of the Cincinnati Reds' offseason shopping list this year as the team looks to rectify the troubles that got them bounced in the NLWCS. With an already tight budget set to get tighter thanks to some hefty arbitration raises, the Reds could try to save some money by targeting a mid-level free agent without a lengthy track record.

Though that might save them a few bucks, compared to the top-of-the-market options, such a player still won't come cheap. The outfield seems to be the logical place to upgrade, with a healthier amount of impact options and fewer internal alternatives than what is present in Cincinnati's infield.

With all that in mind, it would be easy to become infatuated with New York Yankees center fielder and free-agent-to-be Trent Grisham. His 34 homers from the left side would look real nice in a lineup that finished 2025 14th in runs scored, but just 21st in both homers and slugging percentage.

Cincinnati's lefties, TJ Friedl and Gavin Lux, aren't known for their thump, and the latter may be on the non-tender firing line. Therefore, Grisham is a perfect fit, right? Well, not so fast.

The Reds need to learn from their Jeimer Candelario mistake and avoid falling into the Trent Grisham trap

Cincinnati would have more money to spend this offseason if its books weren't strained by the remaining money owed to Jeimer Candelario following his midseason DFA. Candelario was only midway through a three-year, $45 million pact, meaning the Reds will have paid out $22.5 million for him to not play for them. For a club whose payroll is in the bottom-third of the league, that sort of wasted money is a back breaker.

And yet, Candelario serves as the perfect cautionary tale, one that the Reds should take heed of with regard to Grisham. Candelario had spurts of production prior to hitting the open market, but those were easily offset by long dry spells, which caused him to bounce from the Chicago Cubs to the Detroit Tigers to the Washington Nationals, and finally back to the Cubs before landing in Cincinnati.

It was Candelario's 2023 breakout that enticed the Reds. That season, he slashed .251/.336/.471 with 22 homers and posted 3.2 fWAR. What Cincinnati ignored was his 2022 campaign, when his contributions were exactly replacement level, coming in at 0.0 fWAR.

Grisham's career follows a similar path. A first-round pick of the Milwaukee Brewers back in 2015, Grisham had a few early flashes of success in 2020 and 2021, before settling in as a below-average-hitting, slick-fielding fourth outfielder.

His 2024 campaign saw him post a .190/.290/.385 line with nine homers as he struggled to beat out Alex Verdugo, a guy who has been unemployed for most of 2025, for regular playing time.

So while Grisham's 2025 line, .235/.348/.464 with 34 homers and a 129 wRC+, might make you salivate, the odds wouldn't be in your favor if you bet he'd repeat after such a long track record of below-average run production.

Furthermore, Grisham's glove work has taken a step back. Here are his defensive runs saved and outs above average numbers for the last four seasons:

The DRS curve might be a tad steeper, but both metrics agree that Grisham went from a well-above-average defender to an average one, and finally to a below-average to well-below-average defensive player, depending on which metric you prefer. That means, if his bat regresses to the mean, his glove won't save you, not that the Reds need another all-glove no-bat player anyway.

Lastly, there's the issue of the qualifying offer. Grisham was on the verge of being non-tendered by the Yankees last offseason; now he looks to be a prime qualifying offer candidate, meaning not only would he cost Cincinnati a nice chunk of change, but also some draft capital to boot.

The Reds need to learn from past experience with Candelario and approach the prospect of signing Grisham with a heaping helping of caution.