Red Sox non-tender candidate would be a tempting mistake for the Reds

The non-tender deadline is just a few short weeks away, and on November 20, clubs around MLB will be jettisoning dead weight from their rosters to open up space for more impactful additions. They say one man's trash is another man's treasure, and the Cincinnati Reds will certainly be taking that approach as they hope to find diamonds in the rough that can fill holes on their roster.

One player who seems destined for the non-tender chopping block is Boston Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas. Projected to make just $1.7 million in arbitration for 2027, Casas doesn't fit the bill of a player whose salary has ballooned past what his team considers him to be worth. Instead, he's likely to go because of roster constraints.

The Red Sox have a glut of outfielders, with Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela all under contract. Nominally, Masataka Yoshida is an outfielder, too, though really he's more of a DH-only player. The outfield overflow keeps Boston's DH spot occupied, while the first base position is manned by a star-caliber player in Willson Contreras. Casas has no ability to play any position other than first, which means keeping him sacrifices valuable flexibility with little payoff.

At first glance, Casas could be exactly the type of slugger the Reds need. Moving Sal Stewart from first base to third base seems like the best way to configure the infield for maximum impact, and a left-handed-hitting power bat like Casas would not only facilitate that move but also could improve Cincinnati's 23rd-ranked .387 slugging percentage by left-handed hitters.

Gambling on Triston Casas would require the Reds to have an expensive backup plan

The buzz around Casas comes from his breakout 2023 campaign when he slashed .263/.367/.490 with 24 homers in 132 games. He walked at a healthy 13.9%, which further augmented the power that he brought to the plate.

He followed that up with a .241/.337/.462 line in 2024, which, while a step back, was still productive. But that's where the problems begin. Casas missed 99 games due to a rib cage injury, playing in only 63 contests and posting an alarmingly high 31.7% strikeout rate when he was on the field.

That set the scene for a nightmare 2025. Casas began the year by slashing just .182/.277/.303 over 29 games. Those 29 games would be all he'd play as he suffered a ruptured patellar tendon in his left knee on May 2, 2025, and would miss the rest of the season.

It would be one thing if this were only a freak injury. With the rib injury the prior season, there was a trend brewing, but it still wasn't enough to call Casas injury-prone.

However, now he's firmly earned that label. While working his way back from the knee injury during spring training this year, he suffered an abdominal strain that set him back. When he attempted to come back from that, he hurt his wrist and ultimately needed arthroscopic surgery, ending his 2026 campaign in August before it could even begin.

The injuries are the primary concern with Casas, but performance is a worry, too. When healthy in 2024, he was worse than he was the year prior, and 2025 was a disaster. Even if 2023 wasn't originally a mirage, it's hard to imagine the litany of injuries not taking their toll on his body, sapping his production in the process.

Signing Casas would be an extreme gamble, and while the payoff would be massive if he somehow stayed healthy and returned to form, the odds of that happening are pitifully low. That means that Cincinnati would have to sign another player to serve as a backup plan.

Someone like Paul Goldschmidt would be an ideal platoon partner, but the 39-year-old would be overwhelmed in an everyday role should Casas be unable to play, drastically limiting his effectiveness.

A stronger fallback option would be more costly, and at a certain point might just be an outright better bet than Casas. That would render signing Casas pointless, and the Reds would have the same issue that the Red Sox have — a first-base-only player without an everyday role is an inefficient use of a roster spot that could be better utilized to bring depth and versatility to the roster. Casas is intriguing, but Cincinnati must pass if he hits the market.

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