Will Twins’ latest injury force another trade deadline deal with the Reds?

The Cincinnati Reds are no stranger to making deals with the Minnesota Twins. Now, with a recent injury to Twins’ starter Chris Paddack, the two clubs could be primed to match up again for another deal.

The Twins badly need major league starting pitching depth. Even though it is a position of strength throughout the farm system, the major league rotation has questions and Louie Varland isn’t cutting it as a sixth starter. Minnesota is in need of some security and reliability within their rotation, and Reds pitcher Frankie Montas has proven an ability to eat innings this season.

Two years ago, the Reds sent Tyler Mahle to the Twins for a trio of prospects after a preseason deal with Minnesota that brought Chase Petty to Cincinnati in exchange for Sonny Gray. The Reds and Twins also engaged in a deal that sent Kyle Farmer to Minnesota for reliever Casey Legumina before the start of the 2023 season. The two front offices seem to have a good relationship and comfortability dealing with one another.

Could Frankie Montas be the next Reds player traded to the Twins?

If history repeats itself, Montas could be the next Red sent to the Twin Cities. The 31-year-old was signed to a one-year deal with a mutual option prior to the 2025 season. The Reds saw him as a bounce-back candidate following an injury-riddled campaign with the New York Yankees in 2023.

While Montas been far short of spectacular, he's been available — which is more than a lot of starters can say this season. His 5.01 ERA is nothing impressive, but 19 starts covering 93.1 innings are both third on the Reds entering Friday. The Twins could view Montas as an affordable, low-risk starter that could fill a hole in their rotation.

There is reason to dream on an improvement from Montas down the stretch. With a park factor of 104, Great American Ball Park is a top-5 stadium for hitters. Minnesota factors out closer to even, which means the Twins could see more upside and a chance for better results from the right-hander.

Frankie Montas might fare better with the Twins than he has with the Reds

Although it makes a lot of sense for both sides, there are a few factors that could dissuade the Twins from pulling the trigger. The Twins entire starting rotation is made up of right-handed pitchers, therefore a lefty would be desirable to balance out their starting staff.

Montas’ numbers aren’t too encouraging either. His high ERA this year and limited postseason experience could cause teams to question if he fits into a playoff rotation. Furthermore, his advanced metrics are all concerning outside of an above-average off-speed pitch.

The last trade these two teams made could scare the Twins off. The Reds netted both Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer, at the 2022 MLB trade deadline in exchange for Mahle. The Twins may be concerned that a repeat of this deal could cause quite a stir among skeptical fans. 

Ultimately, it looks like Montas could be out the door as the Reds look to retool from within. But with their recent trade history, it’s far from crazy to assume the Twins could be a landing spot for the Reds' starter.

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