Tony Santillan's bounce-back season could threaten to alter this Reds reliever's role

Over the past four seasons, Tony Santillan has emerged as a key bullpen arm, fallen from favor, labored in the minor leagues, and returned to exceptional form. Since forcing his way onto the major league roster at the end of the first-half, Santillan has posted a 1.80 ERA with 15 strikeouts over 10 innings. His success, though, could come at the expense of another prominent bullpen arm.

Santillan, a second-round pick in 2015 and former Baseball America top 100 prospect, seems to have finally risen to the high expectations and could be poised to be the closer of the future for the Reds.

A large portion of Santillan’s success at both the Triple-A and major league level stems from his improved control. In his first three seasons in the big leagues, more than 50% of Santillan’s pitches were outside of the zone. So far in 2024, that rate has dropped to 38.3%. He’s also getting more swings on pitches outside the zone, improving his swing rate by seven percent.

Tony Santillan has taken a massive step forward, which could force Fernando Cruz to the minors?

Lack of control has been another Reds reliever’s Achilles’ heel. Fernando Cruz has had an abysmal past month. Since July 13, the day that Santillan joined Cincinnati, Cruz has produced an 8.59 ERA with two losses and two blown saves.

When looking at Cruz’s worst outings, an interesting trend appears. In 11 of the 16 appearances in which Cruz has allowed a run, he has issued at least one walk. Conversely, he has held opponents scoreless in 40 games so far; he has issued a walk in only seven of those appearances. In other words, when Cruz has control, he gets the job done. When he doesn’t, he falls apart.

This is where Santillan’s success may push Cruz out of the picture. Santillan seems to have found a way to control his fastball-slider combo and return to his 2021 breakout form. In his debut season, he issued 3.98 walks per nine innings between Triple-A and the majors. As of August 12, he has a 4.62 walks per nine rate this season, the best since 2021. Cruz’s walks per nine rate is 4.9.

Santillan is already encroaching on Cruz’s territory. After working middle relief innings and as an opener in his first few games with the Reds this season, Santillan has begun to be used in high-leverage situations. He was called upon to preserve a 0-0 tie in the eighth inning on August 10, a role that would have often gone to Cruz or Alexis Diaz.

It seems as though the Reds are moving toward a bullpen shuffle, and without any minor league options remaining, Santillan is going nowhere. The Reds do, however, have the opportunity to option Cruz back to the minor leagues if needed.

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