Reds vs. Royals prediction and odds for Monday, June 12 (Back Cincy as underdogs)

Jun 11, 2023; St. Louis, Missouri, USA;  Cincinnati Reds Jonathan India (6) scores a home run
Jun 11, 2023; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Cincinnati Reds Jonathan India (6) scores a home run / Zach Dalin-USA TODAY Sports

The Cincinnati Reds are sitting at 31-35, which is much better than many people would have expected at this point of the season. They're also only four games back from the Pittsburgh Pirates for the NL Central lead.

On Monday, the Reds begin a three-game interleague series against the Kansas City Royals, who only have 18 wins on the season. That's just one more than the Oakland Athletics. Yikes.

Let's dive into the odds for tonight's series opener and then I'll give you my best bet.

Reds vs. Royals odds, run line, and total

Reds vs. Royals prediction and pick

Believe it or not, the Reds might actually be a half decent baseball team.

Over the last 30 days, the Reds rank eighth in Major League Baseball in OPS at .759. That's better than teams like the Rays, Astros, Mets, Yankees, and Padres over that stretch. They're also sixth in batting average at .267 over the same time frame.

We're talking about 30 days here, that's not a tiny and meaningless sample size. That's a significant amount of time to be a top eight offense.

I do have to admit, the Royals have the advantage in the starting pitcher department in this game. They'll be rolling out Luke Weaver with a 6.27 ERA against Zack Greinke of the Royals, who has a 4.59 ERA. If there's one thing we can lean on in the pitching matchup it's that Weaver's 5.45 FIP (Field Independent Pitching) indicates we may be seeing some positive regression from him in the near future.

Even with the Royals holding the pitching advantage, I can't pass up the Reds as underdogs against one of the worst teams in baseball.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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