Reds vs. Phillies prediction and odds for Saturday, April 8 (Value in pitching matchup)

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo.
Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo. / David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Phillies are off to an awfully slow start this season, and now they have to face one of the Cincinnati Reds’ best young arms in Nick Lodolo (1-0, 3.60 ERA) on Saturday afternoon. 

Lodolo will toe the rubber against Philly’s Bailey Falter (0-1, 3.38 ERA) in what is a battle of two young left-handed starters. 

Philly picked up a 5-2 win over the Reds on Friday behind Zack Wheeler, but the team has struggled on offense with Rhys Hoskins and Bryce Harper both out due to injuries. 

While Philadelphia destroyed left-handed pitching in the 2022 season, does that carry into this season against Lodolo?

Here’s a look at the latest odds and best bet for this matchup: 

Reds vs. Phillies odds, run line and total

Reds vs. Phillies prediction and pick

So far this season (small sample size), Philadelphia is 19th in Major League Baseball in OPS against left-handed pitching while the Reds clock in at ninth. 

Lodolo is a strikeout machine for the Reds, and he only allowed two runs in his first start this season despite giving up seven hits. 

I think there’s value on the total here, especially since Falter was solid in his first outing of the year, allowing just two runs through 5.2 innings of work. 

The Phillies have scored more than eight combined runs in just three games this season, allowing 11, 16 and eight runs themselves in those games. 

Meanwhile, Cincy may be a little overvalued on offense after opening the season against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs. 

I’ll roll with the UNDER in what is an underrated pitching matchup. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.