Reds vs. Braves prediction and odds for Tuesday, April 11 (Fade Kyle Wright in first start of 2023)

Oct 12, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Kyle Wright (30) reacts after
Oct 12, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Kyle Wright (30) reacts after / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

You might be look at the headline and think I'm crazy, but yes, I recommend fading Kyle Wright and betting on the Cincinnati Reds.

Now, before you go rushing to bet on the Reds to win the game, let me clarify. I'm going to back the Reds offense to score runs, but not to necessarily beat the Braves.

Let's break down the betting odds for the game and then I'll explain how (and why) I tend on doing that.

Reds vs. Braves odds, run line, and total

Reds vs. Braves prediction and pick

Fading the MLB leader in wins last season, Kyle Wright, may seem like an insane thing to do, but there are reasons for me to believe that the Reds offense may be able to get to him tonight.

This will be Wright's first start this season after the Braves activated him from the injured list. Wright dealt with shoulder soreness in the offseason, and not only does the first start of the year always bring some added pressure, but I'm not convinced he's back to 100% yet.

In his rehab assignment at in the Grapefruit League, and in two starts he allowed 10 hits and seven earned runs in just 6.2 innings. A shortened Spring Training that ended with guly results, does not instil confidence in my that he'll have a lights out performance tonight.

Not only that, but we have to hand it to the Reds offense for looking surprisingly good so far this season. They rank 12th in the Majors in OPS through the first 11 days of the season, while also averaging 4.33 runs per game.

So, what we're going to do is take the OVER on the Reds team total of 3.5. That way, we don't need to worry about Cincinnati's pitching or the final result of the game. As long as the Reds can score at least four runs, this bet will cash.

While it may seem crazy, trusting the Reds offense and fading Kyle Wright is the move to make tonight.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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