Reds vs. Angels prediction and odds for Monday, Aug. 21 (Reds are sneaky underdog pick)

The Cincinnati Reds are just one game back of the final wild card spot in the National League heading into Monday’s contest with the Los Angeles Angels. 

The Angels have fallen to three games below .500 despite buying at the trade deadline, making the team's chances at a playoff spot very slim over the final stretch of the regular season. 

One of the Angels’ trade deadline acquisitions, Lucas Giolito (7-9, 4.44 ERA), gets the ball in this game against Cincinnati’s Graham Ashcraft (6-8, 4.89 ERA). 

Ashcraft was brutal in the middle of the season, but he’s really turned things around for the Reds, posting a 2.17 ERA since June 30 (nine starts). 

Can Ashcraft lead the Reds to a much-needed win on Monday? Here’s a look at the latest odds: 

Reds vs. Angels odds, run line and total

Reds vs. Angels prediction and pick

The Angels thought they were upgrading their rotation when they traded for Giolito, but that hasn't been the case. 

He’s made four starts for Los Angeles, posting a 8.14 ERA and leading the team to a 1-3 record in those matchups. Overall this season between the White Sox and Angels, Giolito’s team is just 8-17 in his 25 starts. 

Ashcraft has really turned things around since late June, and this month he’s been great, tossing at least seven innings in each of his three starts. 

The young righty does have a 4.49 Fielding Independent Pitching over his last nine starts, but he’s gotten away with it with a 2.17 ERA. Even if regression comes, I don’t expect it to be in this matchup. 

The reason for that is because the Angels are dead last in the league in OPS over the last 15 days, struggling to score runs as well – ranking in the bottom 10 in the league in that statistic. 

Cincy hasn’t been much better, but it faces an easier pitching matchup. Giolito has allowed at least three runs in each of his outings in Los Angeles. 

Cincy is worth a bet here as an underdog, especially since it’s much closer to playoff spot and has a lot more to play for than Los Angeles. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.

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