Predicting the Reds 40-man roster after the upcoming non-tender deadline

Predicting the Reds infield after the non-tender deadline (9)

Joey Votto, Jonathan India, Jose Barrero, Kyle Farmer, Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Matt Reynolds, Alejo Lopez, Spencer Steer

There shouldn't be many surprises here. Joey Votto, Jonathan India, Spencer Steer, and even Jose Barrero are all locks to be on the Cincinnati Reds 40-man roster after the non-tender deadline. But some other names might not be so fortunate.

Kyle Farmer should, and likely will, be on the roster after the non-tender deadline. A lot has been made about Farmer's projected salary for next season, which MLB Trade Rumors estimates to be in the range of $6M. And while that number is high for the numbers that Farmer puts up, it's not as maintaining his services at that salary will keep Cincinnati from signing a top-flight free agent.

The Reds will also be adding two of their top infield prospects to the 40-man roster later this week. Both Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte will find their names on the roster in the coming days. Though both are likely to begin the season in the minors, the duo could eventually form the future left side of the Reds infield for the next decade.

The two players who are in jeopardy of losing their spot on the 40-man roster are Alejo Lopez and Matt Reynolds. Neither is up for arbitration, so salary will have no impact on their standing. However, both players could serve as a roadblock for some of the Reds incoming talent. But David Bell seems to view both utility players favorably, so it's likely that both Reynolds and Lopez survive.

However, the same cannot be said for Mike Moustakas. Yes, the slugger is due $22M next season, but injuries and conditioning saw Moose land on the IL six times in 2022. Moustakas' salary is already accounted for, and allowing the 34-year-old to play over the likes of Steer and Lopez is not the way a "rebuilding" ball club should operate.

Predicting the Reds outfield after the non-tender deadline (8)

Nick Senzel, Allan Cerda, Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl, Nick Solak, Stuart Fairchild, Michael Siani, TJ Hopkins

Will the Cincinnati Reds finally part company with Aristides Aquino? While The Punisher provides a good arm in right field and plenty of pop once every 39 at-bats or so, it's time for the Reds to bid farewell to Aquino. The team could always look to re-sign him to a minor league contract with an invite to spring training if he passes through waivers.

Nick Senzel, on the other hand, is likely to receive at least one more chance to prove that he's a major league player. The talent is, and always has been, there. However, after playing in 110 games last season, Senzel showed nothing of substance at the plate nor in the outfield. The 2023 season represents his last chance.

The trio of Stuart Fairchild, TJ Friedl, and Jake Fraley will all be battling for the same role with the Reds during the 2023 season. All showed flashes, both on the defensive side and in the batters' box. All three are likely to be on the Opening Day roster heading into next season. The recently acquired Nick Solak may not be part of the Reds roster for very long.

Michael Siani got very little chance to prove himself in 2022 after a late-September call-up. No one doubts Siani's defensive skills, but he has to prove that he can hit a the major league level. Allan Cerda will be a player to watch in spring training. A strong showing in Goodyear could set him up well heading into the 2023 season.

TJ Hopkins will be a name to a keep an eye on at the upcoming deadline. Will the Cincinnati Reds add the 25-year-old to the 40-man roster or leave him unprotected from the Rule 5 Draft. With such a lack of major league talent in the outfield, Cincinnati would be wise to add him to the roster.

Predicting the Reds starting pitchers after the non-tender deadline (8)

Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft, Connor Overton, Levi Stoudt, Justin Dunn, Lyon Richardson

Next season's starting rotation will be loaded with talented young arms. After surviving their rookie seasons, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Graham Ashcraft will all be back for Year 2 in the big leagues.

While adding a veteran starter should be among the priorities for the Cincinnati Reds front office during free agency, don't expect to see Nick Krall running out in the coming days looking to sign a pitcher like Jose Quintana or Chris Bassitt.

Connor Overton and Justin Dunn will likely be in competition for a spot in the starting rotation next season. Overton had a great start to the year, but a back injury forced the right-hander to land on the IL for three months. Dunn struggled with injuries in 2022 as well, and the Reds are hopeful that the former first-round pick is healthy next season.

The Reds are likely to add three more pitchers to the list as well. Brandon Williamson spent the 2022 at Triple-A Louisville and should make his MLB debut next season. Levi Stoudt might have a longer road to reach the majors next season, but the former Seattle Mariners' prospect should begin the 2023 season at Triple-A Louisville.

The final piece of the puzzle may be Lyon Richardson. There are reasons for and against the right-hander being added to the Reds 40-man roster. Some will argue that his lack of experience makes his addition meaningless, as no team would select him during the Rule 5 Draft. Out of an abundance of caution, Cincinnati should place the former second-round pick on the 40-man roster.

Predicting the Reds relief pitchers after the non-tender deadline (14)

Alexis Diaz, Lucas Sims, Tejay Antone, Luis Cessa, Tony Santillan, Reiver Sanmartin, Dauri Moreta, Ricky Karcher, Jeff Hoffman, Fernando Cruz, Ryan Nutof, Daniel Duarte, Luis Mey, Vladimir Gutierrez

This will be the most intriguing group to follow in the coming days. While there are definitely several relievers whose spots on the Cincinnati Reds 40-man roster are secure, there are equally as many who's future with the club is not as certain.

Alexis Diaz, Tejay Antone, Luis Cessa, Tony Santillan, and Fernando Cruz needn't worry about whether or not they'll be part of the Reds roster after the upcoming non-tender deadline. One can probably put Jeff Hoffman and Lucas Sims on that list as well. But the rest of the bullpen arms are a bit harder to predict.

Reiver Sanmartin is the lone left-hander on this list. While the Reds will probably sign a couple of southpaw relievers to minor league contracts over the next few weeks, Sanmartin is likely to be the only left-handed reliever on the 40-man roster.

Dauri Moreta and Daniel Duarte may not have done enough to secure a spot on the 40-man roster, and the duo could be sacrificed if the Reds' brass are bullish on adding a player like Daniel Vellojin to the roster. But, both put up nice strikeout numbers and probably are safe for now.

Vladimir Gutierrez presents an interesting case. While the right-hander was unimpressive in 2022, his rookie performance was quite good. Gutierrez will miss all of next season following Tommy John surgery, but in order to guarantee he remains with the organization, Cincinnati will have to carry him on the 40-man roster for now.

Look for the Cincinnati Reds to add at least two relievers in the coming days. Ricky Karcher is almost a lock to be added to the 40-man roster, and Ryan Nutof should join him. Both right-handers performed well in the minor leagues last season and could join the relief corps at some point in 2023.

The last name on the list is one that many Reds fans probably are not familiar with. Luis Mey has been in the Reds organization since 2018. But the right-hander has only manage to make it to A-Ball. Is it worth adding Mey's electric arm to the 40-man roster? Mey's fastball sits in the upper-90s. With other teams looking for arm talent in the Rule 5 Draft, Mey could a surprise addition to the 40-man roster.