4 reasons why the Reds' playoff hopes are not dead with 8 games to play

The Cincinnati Reds are still within striking distance of the final NL Wild Card spot.

Cincinnati Reds celebrate walk-off win
Cincinnati Reds celebrate walk-off win / Dylan Buell/GettyImages
4 of 4
Next

There are some folks throughout Reds Country who've already buried their favorite team with eight games remaining in the 2023 season. And while it's sure to be an uphill battle, the Cincinnati Reds are not dead yet.

After Wednesday's gut-wrenching loss to the Minnesota Twins, the Reds dropped 1.5 games back of the final NL Wild Card sport. But thanks to the Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets, that deficit was trimmed to just a half-game by the end of play on Thursday.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have begun to distance themselves, but there's still one more spot in the NL Wild Card up for grabs. With eight games left, why should Reds fans be optimistic?

1. The Reds have 5 of their final 8 games on the road.

Wait, I thought we were talking about reasons for optimism. Wouldn't playing five of your final eight games on the road be a bad thing? Well, for most teams, yes. However, the Cincinnati Reds have fared better on the road than they have at home.

This season, the Reds are 42-34 on the road and 37-41 at home. The Reds host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Great American Ball Park beginning on Friday, then go on the road to Cleveland for two games against the Guardians. Cincinnati will finish the 2023 season with three games on the road at Busch Stadium in St. Louis.

Thankfully of the Reds, as bad as they've been at home this season, the Pirates have been equally as bad on the road. Pittsburgh is 33-41 away from PNC Park this season. Cincinnati is 4-6 against Pittsburgh this season.

If the Reds can take at least two of three from the Bucs at home before heading on the road, they'd have to feel pretty good about their chances. But, it would behoove the Redlegs to get that elusive three-game sweep and secure a winning-record before leaving the Queen City on Sunday.

2. No team remaining on the Reds schedule has a winning record.

Unlike the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, strength of schedule isn't really taken into account when selecting teams for the postseason. However, it can't hurt to have the easist remaining schedule of all the teams battling it out for that final NL Wild Card spot.

The Reds have a three-game set with the Pittsburgh Pirates (71-81), followed by two games against the Cleveland Guardians (72-81), and then three games on the road against the St. Louis Cardinals (67-85). Collectively, according to Tankathon.com, those teams have a .458 winning-percentage.

The San Francisco Giants, who are clinging to hope in the chase for the NL Wild Card, get seven games against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and three versus the San Diego Padres. I don't like the Giants' chances.

The Chicago Cubs get the Colorado Rockies, Atlanta Braves, and Milwaukee Brewers. Despite the fact the Braves, and soon the Brewers, will have wrapped up their respective divisions, don't expect those two teams to take it easy on the Cubs. Chicago has gone 3-10 in their last 13 games.

The Miami Marlins, who just lost two of three to the New York Mets, get another matchup against Buck Showalter's club this season. The Fish also have three games remaining against the Milwaukee Brewers and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Miami is trying to finish out this season without their ace, Sandy Alcantara.

The Arizona Diamondbacks, who aren't out of the woods yet, have three games against the Astros, three games against the Yankees, and three games against the Chicago White Sox. The Cincinnati Reds have the benefit of the easiest schedule down the stretch.

3. The off days allow the Reds to go to a four-man rotation.

The schedule definitely favors the Cincinnati Reds once again. With an of-day yesterday, plus an extra day off on Monday next week and then again next Thursday, David Bell can shrink his starting rotation down to just four pitchers.

Andrew Abbott will get the ball on Friday against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Abbott has been shaky of late, but the Reds bullpen will be well-rested after Hunter Greene gave seven innings on Wednesday, and only Sam Moll, Ian Gbaut, and Alexis Diaz entered the game.

Connor Phillips will toe the rubber on Saturday for the Reds and he'll be followed by Brandon Williamson. Hunter Greene will then step onto the mound for Game 1 in Cleveland. With Abbott having pitched on Friday, he'd then be available on Wednesday having received four-days rest.

Phillips would then get the ball in Game 1 at St. Louis with Williamson and Greene to follow. Now, if by some chance the Reds actually secure that final Wild Card spot before the day of the 2023 season, Bell can then rest Greene and start him for Game 1 of the Wild Card Series.

Ben Lively is available to pitch, as would be Lyon Richardson and even Levi Stoudt. But quite frankly, the four starter remaining on the active roster give manager David Bell and his team the best chance to win.

4. The Brewers present a tough matchup for the Marlins.

Let's be objective, shall we? Of all the teams left in the chase for the NL Wild Card, the Miami Marlins are the biggest obstacle standing in the Reds' way.

Cincinnati and Miami each won three games during the head-to-head matchup this season, and the Marlins hold the tiebreaker based on their intradivision record. If the Reds and Marlins have identical record at the end of the season, Miami would go to the postseason while the Reds are sitting at home.

That brings us to this weekend's matchup between the Miami Marlins and Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew are in firm control of the NL Central and could be crowned the division champs as soon as this weekend. As of Thursday afternoon, the Brewers' magic number was down to three.

But heading to the mound on Friday for Milwaukee will be Corbin Burnes. He'll be followed by Brandon Woodruff and then Freddy Peralta. In case you haven't watched much Brewers' baseball this season, those are three of the best pitchers in the NL.

It wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities for the Beermakers to sweep the Fish which would greatly help the Cincinnati Reds chances down the stretch.

Despite the fact Milwaukee will have likely locked up the NL Central very soon, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Brewers continue to run those three out for the remainder of the season. If that holds true, Peralta would likely get the ball next Friday against the Cubs. That would also benefit the Reds.

Unfortunately, if the Cincinnati Reds do make into the postseason, they're likley to face that same trio of Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta in the Wild Card Series. Cincinnati is also 3-10 versus Milwaukee this season. But all bets are off once the MLB Playoffs begin.

manual

Next