3 reasons why the Reds should sign Seth Lugo instead of Eduardo Rodriguez

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Aaron Nola is off the market, and so is Lance Lynn. But there are several impact arms who are still available in free agency this offseason.

The Cincinnati Reds are said to be looking to add an arm or two this offseason, and while the bullpen could use some help as well, the starting rotation has to be a point of emphasis this winter.

Two pitchers who are still available in free agency are Eduardo Rodriguez and Seth Lugo. Both have a chance to secure multi-year deals this offseason, but Lugo would be the better fit for the Reds. Let's look at why signing Lugo should take precedence over Rodriguez.

1. Seth Lugo is much more versatile than Eduardo Rodriguez

Whispers from the Cincinnati Reds front office seem to suggest that the team is looking for a pitcher who can offer the team a unique ability to work as both a starter and reliever. The Atlanta Braves just signed Reynaldo Lopez to perhaps take on a similar role.

Seth Lugo proved last season that he has what it takes to be a starter in the league. After years as a reliever, Lugo stepped into the San Diego Padres rotation in 2023 and started 26 games. Lugo posted a 3.57 ERA and 3.83 FIP according to FanGraphs.

Of Lugo's 301 major league appearances, 64 have come as a starter. The same cannot be said of Eduardo Rodriguez. During his time with both the Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers, Rodriguez has started 196 of his 202 games pitched.

While some fans may not like this idea of signing a swingman like Seth Lugo or Nick Martinez, given the number of young starting pitchers the Cincinnati Reds have on their 40-man roster and in the farm system, this could be money well spent.

2. Seth Lugo should be a cheaper option than Eduardo Rodriguez

If you're a team looking to add a starting pitcher, you're not alone. One could argue that almost every single organization is looking to add a starter or two this offseason.

Let's face it, Reds fans, Cincinnati is not going to compete with the big market teams. Can they? Sure. Will they? Probably not. So rather than setting their sights on a pitcher like Sonny Gray or Blake Snell, the Cincinnati Reds are going to be looking at that next tier of starters.

That tier would include both Seth Lugo and Eduardo Rodriguez. While both pitchers turned down the opportunity to return to their respective franchises this offseason, there's a big difference between the figure that Lugo rejected and the one that Rodriguez renounced.

Lugo's player-option was only $7.5 million, so it's safe to assume that the right-hander will be looking for more money this offseason. But Rodriguez spurned the final three years and $49 million he was owed by the Detroit Tigers. That's a big chunk of change.

Obviously, Eduardo Rodriguez will be looking for more years and more zeroes. Even if the average annual value (AAV) remains the same, Rodriguez is likely looking for a deal that would add an extra guaranteed year to any deal.

MLB Trade Rumors predicts that Seth Lugo will land a three-year/$42-million deal ($14-million AAV), while Rodriguez is estimated to sign a four-year/$82-million pact ($20.5-million AAV).

Seeing as how the Cincinnati Reds may be looking to lock up some of their own players this offseason, and have more needs than just adding a starting pitcher, saving about $6 million per season over the next three years could help to build a more complete roster.

3. Do the Reds need another left-handed starter?

This may seem like a bit of an odd thing to critique. And while the Cincinnati Reds shouldn't just close the door on a potential deal for Eduardo Rodriguez simply because he's a left-handed pitcher, that's an area where the club has a ton of depth.

Most teams like to have a balanced attack - both on the mound and at the plate. Cincinnati, however, already has three very talented left-handed starting pitchers. Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, and Brandon Williamson will all be making their case next spring to be part of the Reds rotation.

When comparing both Rodriguez and Seth Lugo, the two pitchers have very similar numbers. Both pitchers keep the fastball in the low-90s. Neither pitcher has huge strikeout numbers, but both keep the base paths relatively clear of free runners.

If the comparisons between these pitchers are beginning to look like mirror images, the Reds might do well to add the right-handed throwing Lugo over the southpaw Rodriguez.

The Cincinnati Reds have two right-handed starters who are likely to see the mound early and often in 2024. Both Hunter Greene and Graham Ashcraft are expected to be part of the Reds starting rotation.

But the young hurlers are both power-pitchers - relying on a 95-plus mph heater to get ahead in counts. Lugo would bring a much different approach, and could keep the opposition off balance by changing speeds and using that very affective curveball.

There's reason to believe that the Cincinnati Reds could be looking at both Eduardo Rodriguez and Seth Lugo in free agency this offseason. But putting the two side-by-side, it would appear as though Lugo is the better for the Reds.

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