3 hypothetical Reds trade packages for Guardians pitcher Shane Bieber

If the Reds were able to swing a deal for Shane Bieber, what might it cost?

Cleveland Guardians pitcher Shane Bieber
Cleveland Guardians pitcher Shane Bieber / Ron Schwane/GettyImages
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It sounds as if the Cincinnati Reds' interest in Tampa Bay Rays starter Tyler Glasnow is waning. And with the Los Angeles Dodgers now making a pitch to land the right-hander, Cincinnati may need to turn their attention elsewhere if the Reds are hoping to secure a starting pitcher through a trade.

Chicago White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease is said to be available, but the asking price is astronomical. Though Cincinnati has the prospects to pull off such a deal, the Reds like their young talent, and would appear more likely to upgrade the rotation another way.

Shane Bieber has been linked to the Reds since the offseason began. The Cleveland Guardians starter is in the final year of his arbitration window and has some injury concerns, but Bieber is a former Cy Young Award-winner and would be a massive upgrade to the Reds rotation.

If the Reds and Guardians, who have been frequent trade partners in the past, were to work out a trade, what might it look like?

1. Reds trade for Shane Bieber in 1-for-1 deal with Guardians

Securing prospects in exchange for a frontline starter like Shane Bieber probably wouldn't be too popular with the Cleveland Guardians fanbase. But as is the case with teams who were looking to trade for Jonathan India, any club seeking to land Bieber is looking to contend now.

With that in mind, it's very unlikely that any team would be willing to sacrifice talent from their major leauge roster in a trade. The Reds farm system, however, is very deep and Cleveland would love to add a talented prospect or two in exchange in for Bieber.

Bieber Trade #1

There's an outside chance that Bieber could net a a Top 100 prospect in return, but considering the injury concerns after last season's IL stint, the Guardians are probably more likely to land a high-upside prospect from the lower minor leagues in a one-for-one swap.

With so many talented shortstop prospects within the Cincinnati Reds organization, president of baseball operations Nick Krall should be willing to part with at least one. While Edwin Arroyo would be far too much to send back to Cleveland in return, Leonardo Balcazar might be enough.

Many Reds fans are unfamiliar with the 19-year-old, but during his three seasons in the Reds organization, Balcazar has been one of Cincinnati's best young hitters. Balcazar's 2023 campaign was cut short following a knee injury, but once fully recovered, the infielder should get back to tearing the cover off the ball.

2. Reds secure Shane Bieber and send 2 power-hitters to Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians ranked 29th in slugging percentage last season. Only the Oakland Atheltics ranked lower. Cleveland's 124 round trippers ranked dead-last in all of Major League Baseball.

While there are other ways to be competitive, the long ball is a difference-maker. Of the Top 10 teams in home runs last season, only three (New York Yankees, New York Mets, and Los Angeles Angels) missed the playoffs.

Bieber Trade #2

The Guardians need some power bats in their lineup. While the Cincinnati Reds would be unwilling to trade players like Christian Encarnacion-Strand or Noelvi Marte in exchange for Shane Bieber, there are some power-hitting outfielders in the team's minor league system that could pique Cleveland's interest.

Rece Hinds was added to the Reds 40-man roster earlier this year. The slugger absolutely crushes baseballs. And while Hinds' strikeout-rate is less than ideal, when the young outfielder connects, the ball goes a long, long way.

Yerlin Confidan is another highly-regarded power bat in the Reds pipeline. Confidan had huge success in the Arizona Complex League two years ago, but the 20-year-old has struggled during his past two minor league seasons.

If the Cleveland Guardians are looking to upgrade the power in the farm system, Rece Hinds and Yerlin Confidan would provide plenty of pop. Both have several years of team-control remaining and offer tremendous upside if they're able to cut down on the swings and misses.

3. Reds send promising prospect and pick to Guardians for Shane Bieber

Jay Allen was taken with the Compensatory Draft pick the Cincinnati Reds received in 2021 after losing former Cleveland Guardians pitcher Trevor Bauer to the Los Angeles Dodgers in free agency.

How ironic would it be for the Reds and Guardians to agree to another trade involving a Cy Young pitcher and that draft pick? Allen has amazing raw tools, but is still several years away from making an impact at the major league level. This high-upside outfielder could help the Reds secure Shane Bieber in a trade.

Bieber Trade #3

But Allen alone wouldn't be enough. Though the former three-sport athlete has unbelievable attributes, he's still just 21 years old and far from a finished product. Perhaps adding a draft pick would push the Guardians to make a deal.

While MLB rules stipulate that teams cannot trade draft picks, Competitive Balance Picks are a different story entirely. The Cincinnati Reds traded former prospect Shed Long and their Competitive Balance Draft pick to the New York Yankees in exchange for Sonny Gray and Reiver Sanmartin in 2019.

If Cleveland were to keep Shane Bieber heading into 2024 and lose him during free agency the following offseason, it's likely the team would recoup a Compensatory Pick if the Guardians extended a Qualifying Offer to the former Cy Young-Award winner.

Maybe a former top draft choice in Jay Allen and an additional one of their own choosing would be enough to sway Cleveland to part ways with Bieber.

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