2 reasons why the Reds should trade for Tyler Glasnow and 2 reasons why they shouldn't

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The starting pitcher market is beginning to heat up. This week, Aaron Nola, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson have all inked new deals. But there are several top-of-the-rotation pitchers remaining in free agency.

Eduardo Rodriguez, Sonny Gray, and Blake Snell are the cream of the crop when it comes to free agent pitchers. A step down from those three would be Jordan Montgomery, Seth Lugo, and Marcus Stroman.

But for the Cincinnati Reds, who are notoriously frugal when it comes to free agency, perhaps the best way to land a frontline starter would come through a trade. One pitcher who's said to be available is Tampa Bay Rays starter Tyler Glasnow. Could the Reds and Rays actually work out a deal?

Tyler Glasnow is the ace Reds fans have been clamoring for

Let's get this out of the way first, shall we? If the Cincinnati Reds swing a trade for Tyler Glasnow, he would vault immediately to the top of the rotation. No longer are we discussing mid-tier starters like Nick Martinez and Michael Wacha; Glasnow is a bonafide ace.

The term ace is one that gets tossed about rather flippantly at times, and sometimes is more indicative of a pitcher's standing within his own team rather than a true ace. But make no mistake, Glasnow would be an ace in every sense of the word.

Glasnow's numbers speak for themselves. The 30-year-old made 21 starts for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2023 and posted a 3.53 ERA with 162 punch outs over 120 innngs of work. According to Baseball Savant, Glasnow's 33.4-percent strikeout-rate was among the 97th percentile in Major League Baseball last season.

Tyler Glasnow gets strikeouts and ground balls. The right-hander posted a 50.9-percent ground ball-rate, which would play very well in Great American Ball Park. Glasnow's game perfectly fits what the Reds coaching staff is looking for in a frontline starter.

Tyler Glasnow's injury history would give the Reds cause to pause

Trading for Tyler Glasnow is not a slam dunk. In fact, were it not for Glasnow's history of injuries, it's conceivable that he'd already have a new home at this point in the offseason.

But after missing almost all of the 2022 season and part of 2023, teams will unquestionably being doing their due diligence when investigating whether or not to bring Glasnow into their stable of starting pitchers. This is certainly true of the Cincinnati Reds, who saw pitcher after pitcher hit the IL in 2023.

Cincinnati saw Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Graham Ashcraft all spent time on th 60-day IL last season. In fact, Lodolo and Ashcraft actually ended their 2023 campaign on the injured list.

Glasnow was diagnosed with partial tears in his UCL in 2021 and eventually needed Tommy John surgery. After missing almost all of the 2022 season while recovering from the surgery, Glasnow eventually made it back for a start in September and even appeared in a playoff game for the Rays.

Last season, Tyler Glasnow was expected to join Shane McClanahan at the top of the Tampa Bay rotation, but an oblique strain to begin his 2023 campaign sidelined the right-hander to start the season and limited him to just 21 starts.

Every single pitcher comes with injury risk, but Glasnow's recent setbacks certainly raise a red flag. Could the Cincinnati Reds look past those in order to pull off a deal with the Rays this offseason?

Tyler Glasnow's contract is very doable for the Reds

Some Reds fans will point to Tyler Glasnow's contract as a reason that Cincinnati should completely avoid doing a deal with the Tampa Bay Rays. However, it's the exact opposite. While the number is high, the Cincinnati Reds certainly have the means to pay for Glasnow's services.

Glasnow signed a two-year deal with the Rays in 2022 that will pay the right-hander $25 million during the 2024 season. Glasnow would then become a free agent next offseason.

The Reds just got done shelling out $25 million to Joey Votto in 2023. Votto, who's now a free agent, hit just .202/.314/.433 with 14 home runs and 38 RBI. While Votto was on the road back from shoulder surgery, those aren't the numbers you expect from a player making $25 million.

The Cincinnati Reds also paid Mike Moustakas $22 million to go play baseball somewhere else. After designating Moustakas for assignment last winter, Cincinnati still owed the infielder's $18-million salary for the 2023 season and the $4-million buyout for 2024.

The Reds have virtually cleared the books for the 2024 season. The only player with guaranteed contracts for the upcoming season are Hunter Green and Luke Maile. The Reds actually owe more to Votto ($7 million) than the combined salaries of Greene and Maile for 2024 ($6.3 million).

Yes, $25 million is a chunk of change. But if you look at the starting pitching market, to get a player of Tyler Glasnow's caliber, it's going to cost you. If Glasnow produces at the level he's capable of, it could be considered a steal for the Cincinnati Reds.

Trading for Tyler Glasnow might cost the Reds a top prospect

It's well known what Tyler Glasnow will cost in terms of salary. But what could cost the Cincinnati Reds in terms of prospect capital? For a team like Cincinnati, is it worth getting a player like Glasnow if it requires a top prospect in return?

One would have to assume that the Reds would be unwilling to move a number of their top prospects for just one year of Glasnow. Cincinnati could extend a Qualifying Offer to Glasnow next offseason which would at least guarantee an extra draft pick if the right-hander left in free agency.

Looking at the team's top prospects, MLB Pipeline lists players like Cam Collier, Edwin Arroyo, Chase Petty, and Sal Stewart among the best in the Reds farm system. Would Cincinnati be willing to part with at least one of the players in order to grab Glasnow?

The Reds have made no bones about it; Cincinnati plans to build their team from the inside out. Having a stable group of young players, especially those who have yet to be added to the 40-man roster, should help the organization play winning baseball by continually injecting young talent into the roster.

That said, the Cincinnati Reds have a plethora of young infielders in the pipeline. So if landing Tyler Glasnow cost the Reds a player like Sammy Stafura or Ricardo Cabrera, the frachise should be able to weather that loss.

Reds fans have a tendency to cling to prospects, and after seeing the debuts of Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz in 2023, it's understandable. But, if the team wants to add a frontline starter like Glasnow, it's going to come at the cost of losing some good, young talent.

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