1 top-tier starter the Reds should target during free agency and 2 they should avoid

If the Reds want to shoot for the stars, there are some top-tier pitchers to target and some to avoid this offseason.

Minnesota Twins pitcher Sonny Gray
Minnesota Twins pitcher Sonny Gray / Adam Bettcher/GettyImages
1 of 3
Next

The Cincinnati Reds are likley to be in the market for starting pitching once free agency opens. The problem for the Reds is that 29 other teams will be doing the same thing.

After watching the likes of Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Nathan Eovaldi dominate the opposition during the MLB Postseason, it's become more obvious than ever before that top-flight pitching is necessary to go deep into the playoffs.

While it's not their style, the Reds have the ability to sign high-dollar free agents this offseason given that Hunter Greene and Luke Maile are the only contracts on the books for 2024. Which two free agent starters should the Reds target during free agent, and which one should remain off the team's radar?

The Reds should target Rangers starter Jordan Montgomery during free agency

Jordan Montgomery should be the Cincinnati Reds' No. 1 target on the free agent market this offseason. The left-hander has pitched exceedingly well during the postseason, and the Reds need a veteran arm like Montgomery in the rotation.

Montgomery has been all over the place the past few seasons. Since 2021, Montgomery has toed the rubber for the New York Yankees, St. Louis Cardinals, and Texas Rangers. The southpaw has posted a sub-4.00 ERA the past three seasons.

Montgomery does a decent job of keeping the ball in the ballpark. Over the past three years, Montgomery has a ground ball-rate of 43-percent or better. The 30-year-old also keeps the base paths clear with a walk-rate of just 6.2-percent this season.

Jordan Montgomery has one thing going for him that many others on this list won't; the lefty won't be tied to a qualifying offer. Since Montgomery was traded midseason, the Rangers can not offer the hurler a qualifying offer, so there's no draft compensation necessary in order to sign Montgomery.

The Reds should avoid Twins starter Sonny Gray during free agency

Sonny Gray is going to be a name that's sure to garner a lot of attention, especially from the Cincinnati Reds fanbase. Gray was beloved by the majority of Reds Country and a reunion with the right-hander would be well-received by the Cincinnati faithful.

But re-siging Gray may not be the wisest investment. First, Gray is sure to have plenty of suitors. The St. Louis Cardinals are already said to be gaga over Gray, and it's a surefire bet that the Minnesota Twins will look to re-sign him.

Furthermore, Gray will likely have a qualifying offer attached to his free agent contract. If Gray receives a QO and is signed to a contract by any team other than the Twins, it's going to cost them a high draft pick. That goes against the Reds' philosophy.

There's also the contract demands and age to consider. While the aforementioned Alex Cobb (36) is older than Gray, the Twins' ace is going to be looking for a three-or-four year deal of at least $20-million per season. I'm not sure the Reds want to make a soon-to-be 34-year-old pitcher their highest-paid free agent ever.

Sonny Gray is a solid pitcher, and would likely be the Cincinnati Reds Opening Day starter in 2024 if the club were to bring him back to the Queen City. However, there are better options available, both for the short and long-term that Cincinnati should consider this offseason.

The Reds should avoid Cubs starter Marcus Stroman during free agency

If you look at some of Marcus Stroman's statistics, you'll see a lot of positives. The right-hander owned a 57.4-percent ground ball-rate in 2023, and while Stroman's walk-rate is up slightly, it's still less than 10-percent.

There is also the chance that Stroman doesn't even hit free agency. The 32-year-old has a $21-million player-option for 2024 that he could exercise in order to stay with the Chicago Cubs in 2024.

But it's not the stats that should concern Reds fans, but the durability. The past two seasons, Stroman has found the injured list a few times. In 2022, Stroman was sidelined with a right shoulder injury and last season he hit the IL for over a month with a hip issue.

After having so many starting pitchers land on the IL in 2023, the last thing the Cincinnati Reds need to is sign a pitcher with durability concerns. After starting 33 games in 2021, Stroman started just 25 games the past two seasons for Chicago.

If Marcus Stroman does opt out of his contract with the Cubs, he obviously has his sights set on securing more than $21-million in 2024. That's a lot of cash to spend on pitcher who's seen the IL as much as Stroman has the past two seasons.

The Cincinnati Reds saw Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft, Hunter Greene, Connor Overton all have lengthy stays on the injured list in 2023. There's no need to have a player like Marcus Stroman join them in the training room.

manual

Next