Predicting a Tyler Stephenson contract extension after Reds catcher's 2024 breakout

The Cincinnati Reds could have a very busy offseason. Of course numerous fans have been clamoring for Nick Krall and the Reds front office to sign Elly De La Cruz to a massive contract extension this winter, while others have been advocating for starters like Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott to follow in Hunter Greene's footsteps and sign a long-term deal.

While most Reds fans would love to see the trio of De La Cruz, Lodolo, and Abbott stay in the Queen City for the long haul, the most pressing long-term contract Cincinnati may want to commit to is the one for Tyler Stephenson.

Unlike De La Cruz, Lodolo, and Abbott, Stephenson is heading into Year 2 of his arbitration window this winter, which means that the Reds only have him under team control for two more seasons. After watching Stephenson breakout in 2024, this offseason might be a good time to hammer out a long-term contract. But what would that look like?

Predicting a Tyler Stephenson contract extension after Reds catcher's 2024 breakout

When it comes to contract negotiations, it's best to look at comparable players and see what their contracts look like. Catchers, however, are a bit harder to get a read on. The position itself demands that defense be a priority, and of course there's the ability to communicate and work well with your pitching staff. But any catcher who's going to command a long-term deal had better be able to swing the bat as well.

Stephenson has certainly done that in 2024. After an injury-plagued season in 2022 and a down-year in 2023, Stephenson has returned to that 2021 form that had so many Reds fans excited about the prospect of having a hit-first catcher in the very day lineup. Stephenson has been squaring the ball nicely this season, hitting the ball the other way, and has finally regained that power that it appeared was absent last season.

The highest-paid catcher in the game today is Will Smith of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Smith inked a 10-year, $140 million deal that runs through 2033. That's a bit too rich for the Reds' blood, and it's doubtful that anyone would hand out that type of money to Stephenson in the first place. Keibert Ruiz signed an eight-year extension worth $50 million, but he's also two years younger than Stephenson.

Braves' catcher Sean Murphy shares similarities with Reds backstop Tyler Stephenson

Sean Murphy's six-year, $73 million deal that he signed at age 28 with the Atlanta Braves is probably in the ballpark of what Stephenson may be looking at in terms of years and dollars. Murphy was coming off back-to-back seasons of double-digit homers and 50-plus RBI. Collectively, Murphy had a 115 OPS+ through his first four seasons. Stephenson's career-108 OPS+ is eerily close. Both Murphy and Stephenson had an 8.1 oWAR through their first four years in the big leagues.

Murphy is arguably a better defender than Stephenson, so maybe the price tag goes down just a touch. Could the Reds and Stephenson come together on a six-year, $65 million deal? If you wanted to take a year off the contract, maybe a five-year, $60 million pact would be enough to get it done.

The Reds have effectively moved past their rebuild and now have a number of potential pieces who could be part of the foundation moving forward. Stephenson is one of those players, and the Reds' lack of catching depth in the minor leagues makes it even more imperative for Cincinnati to work out a long-term deal with their QB1.

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