Marlins vs. Reds prediction and odds for Wednesday, August 9 (Cueto's Back)

The Marlins and Reds have split the first two in this three-game series in Cincinnati and are in a tight Wild Card race.

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Johnny Cueto (47)
Miami Marlins starting pitcher Johnny Cueto (47) / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

A loss to the Miami Marlins yesterday makes seven losses in their last eight tries for the Cincinnati Reds who have fallen to third in the NL Central. The Reds are 60-56 and behind the Brewers and the Cubs in the divisional race. The Reds are the first team out of the Wild Card picture and the Marlins are a half game behind at 59-56. Today’s rubber match will be big in that Wild Card race.

Miami will turn to Johnny Cueto in his old stomping grounds for the series finale. The former Red will make his fifth start for Miami and he’ll come in at 0-3 with a 5.32 ERA. Cueto will be opposed by Graham Ashcraft who is 6-7 in 21 starts with a 5.18 ERA. 

It’s an early start on a getaway day in Cincinnati, so let’s get into the odds for the Marlins and Reds with Cueto back in Cincy. 

Marlins vs. Reds odds, run line and total

Marlins vs. Reds prediction and pick

Miami certainly wishes that Cueto would pitch like he did when he was on the Reds, because the version that they have of him now isn’t nearly as good. He has given up five home runs in 22.0 innings of work. That’s a pretty significant amount, but he’s been able to eat some innings for Miami which is worthwhile. 

Really, Cueto’s numbers aren’t that different from Ashcraft who has a 5.23 FIP which is slightly better than Cueto’s 5.54. Ashcraft has also allowed 17 home runs in 21 starts including two in his most recent trip to the mound. He did go eight innings allowing three runs in that start so expect both starters to work fairly deep into this one and not put much stress on either bullpen. 

Cincinnati has been cold offensively in August. They are 1-7 in their last eight games and have scored three or less runs in five of those. Two of their games with more runs were 20-9 and 16-6 losses to the Cubs where the game was out of hand so Chicago gave up runs late. Fading the Reds as a favorite right now feels like a good bet, but I’m liking the under even more. 

Miami has also lost seven of their last nine games, so it’s not like they’re setting the world on fire either. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change

21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER