Diamondbacks vs. Reds prediction and odds for Sunday, July 23

Despite his struggles, the Reds keep winning when Luke Weaver takes the mound this season.

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Luke Weaver (34)
Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Luke Weaver (34) / Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

It was five straight losses out of the All-Star break for the Cincinnati Reds, but now four wins in a row have them at 54-46 and on the verge of sweeping the 54-45 Arizona Diamondbacks at home. Both teams are second in their respective divisions with Cincy within a game and a half of Milwaukee and Arizona four behind LA. 

Today, the Diamondbacks will be leaning on a weakness of their club by going with a bullpen game. Jose Ruiz will take the mound first and he is 2-1 with a 5.48 ERA in 37 appearances this year. Luke Weaver will go for the Reds and Weaver is 2-2 with a 7.22 ERA. The Reds are 10-6 in Weaver’s 16 previous starts and are nearly even odds with the Diamondbacks in the series finale. 

Diamondbacks vs. Reds odds, run line and total

Diamondbacks vs. Reds prediction and pick

If the Arizona Diamondbacks have a big weakness on their team it’s the bullpen. Today, they’ll look to rely on that unit to get them a win in this series finale with the Reds and avoid a sweep in Cincinnati. Ruiz has pitched 42.2 innings this season and has 38 strikeouts to 21 walks with his staggeringly high 5.48 ERA and a 5.84 FIP. It could be a bad start for Arizona in this one and I’m not sure their offense will be able to keep pace. 

I like the Diamondbacks lineup, but I’m actually not sure how well they’ll fare against Luke Weaver. Despite Weaver’s 7.22 ERA, he has a 5.88 FIP which means he’s due for some regression. Weaver has allowed 19 home runs in 16 starts which is disastrous and isn’t a good sign for an outing at home in Cincinnati. However, a FIP that much lower than his ERA tells me some positive results are coming soon. 

It’s a tough thing to do considering the staggering amount of home runs that Weaver has allowed, but I’m going to back Cincinnati in this one. The Diamondbacks are 19th in home runs this month with 19 in 16 games. Weaver should survive for a bit in this one and the Reds have a better bullpen with a 3.89 ERA compared to Arizona’s 4.38. I’m taking the Reds to complete the sweep. 

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