The Cincinnati Reds have become the storyline of the season. A group of young underdogs who have put something together and are now tied for the NL Central lead at the halfway point of the season.
They now have an opportunity to take over sole possession of first place in the division with a win over the Milwaukee Brewers this evening.
Can they get it done, or should we bet on the total instead? Let's dive into it.
Brewers vs. Reds odds, run line, and total
Brewers vs. Reds prediction and pick
You might notice that the total is 9.5 tonight despite the last two meetings between these teams ending in a 1-0 decision. After noticing that, you may be rushing to bet on the UNDER tonight.
I'm here to tell you to zig when you feel like you're supposed to zag, and take the OVER instead.
If this was any point in the first half of the season, I would be taking the Reds or the UNDER with Andrew Abbott on the mound, largely due to how bad the Brewers were against left-handed pitchers. But, when there's a change in numbers I have to change my strategy and that's exactly what we're dealing with here today.
Over the last 30 days, the Brewers have fixed their woes against left-handed pitchers, and have actually ranked sixth in the Majors in OPS against lefties over that time frame.
That means we can't blindly fade the Brewers when they take on a lefty. In fact, we want to bet on them instead. But, that doesn't mean I want to bet against the Reds either. Their offense has been even hotter over that stretch, ranking third in the Majors in overall OPS at .818.
Don't let yesterday's game fool you. The OVER is the bet to make on Saturday night.