Braves vs. Reds prediction and odds for Saturday, June 24 (Expect plenty of offense)

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Graham Ashcraft.
Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Graham Ashcraft. / Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY

The Cincinnati Reds just keep on winning, taking their 12th straight game on Friday night with a  crazy 11-10 win over the Atlanta Braves. 

Reds rookie phenom Elly De La Cruz hit for the cycle – in just six innings – in the win, moving Cincinnati to 41-35 on the season and giving the team a 1.5 game lead in the NL Central. 

Atlanta has been hot as of late as well, winning eight of its last 10 games and sitting 21 games over .500 entering Saturday’s matchup. 

Graham Ashcraft (3-5, 6.78 ERA) is coming off the injured list to start this one for the Reds against Braves rookie Jared Shuster (4-2, 4.57 ERA). 

Let’s break down the odds and my best bet for this matchup:

Braves vs. Reds odds, run line and total

Braves vs. Reds prediction and pick

If you want to bet on the Reds to extend this winning streak, I can’t blame you, cause this team has been as hot as they come. 

However, that’s not my favorite play in this game. 

Instead, I’m looking at the OVER with both of these young starters struggling at the moment. 

Friday night’s matchup saw 21 combined runs in the game, and I don’t think we see that many in Game 2, but it could be close. 

Ashcraft had been atrocious before landing on the injured list, and he’s really had two different seasons in one:

Graham Ashcraft stats

First six starts of 2023: 2-0, 2.00 ERA (3.35 FIP), Opponent BA of .202

Last seven starts of 2023: 1-5, 12.72 ERA (7.03 FIP), Opponent BA of .374

Yes, you read that right – over Ashcraft’s last seven starts, opponents are hitting .374 against him and he’s posted a 12.72 ERA. 

That is arguably the worst stretch of any pitcher in baseball, so I expect him to struggle against an elite Atlanta offense this afternoon. 

As for Shuster, he’s allowed four or fewer runs in each of his starts, but he hasn’t really worked deep into games, hence the 4.57 ERA. If he follows that same pattern, I think it’ll be enough to push this game OVER. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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