5 Cincinnati Reds who will outperform their 2022 ZiPS projections

3. Amir Garrett, Cincinnati Reds reliever

Call me crazy, but I think we will see a HUGE bounce-back season from Amir Garrett in 2022. The left-hander knows how poorly he played last season, and if he ever wants to secure a big contract, he'll have to show that 2021 was a bump in the road.

AG could not be counted on last season. The southpaw appeared in 63 games, but only pitched in 47.2 innings. Garrett posted a 6.04 ERA and an obscene 13.5% walk-rate. AG was worth -0.1 fWAR and lost his job as the Reds closer.

Amir Garrett will have to fight tooth and nail to regain the title of closer, and to be honest, I don't think it's David Bell's intention to hand out that role in 2022. But if Garrett is able to rebound from his atrocious 2021 season, the Reds skipper may lean on the lefty late in games when an opposing team has a left-handed heavy lineup.

FanGraphs projects AG to go 2-2 with a 4.25 ERA over 48 innings of work. The prediction also sees a spike in Garrett's strikeout-rate (31.3%) but foresees his walk-rate (13.1%) remaining about the same. That is the area where Garrett must improve.

Amir Garrett's K-BB% in 2020 was 27.5%, but last year that number fell to 14.9%; the lowest since his rookie season in 2017. ZiPS projects that number to be 18.4% in 2022. That's not good enough for a player of Garrett's talent. Look for AG to improve upon last year's disastrous campaign and get back to being the dominant left-hander we all know and love.