5 Cincinnati Reds who will outperform their 2022 ZiPS projections

Every year, FanGraphs releases their ZiPS projections for the upcoming baseball season. This year, the website pegs the Reds offense to drop off a bit from last year's stellar production and the estimates assume that Cincinnati will hover around the .500 mark all season.

The Reds exceeded expectations last season, and they'll have to do so again if they hope to compete for the NL Central Division crown. Both the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers are expected to finish higher than the Cincinnati Reds.

There's still time for Cincinnati to make some solid roster additions; maybe re-signing Nick Castellanos? But given how the offseason unfolded prior to the lockout, most fans foresee more of a selloff than a buying spree.

Despite all the changes, Cincinnati still looks to field a competitive team in 2022 while reducing payroll. That's a bold strategy, but perhaps it'll work. Let's take a look at five Reds players who will outperform their ZiPS projections next season.

1. Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds catcher

First, let's look at Tyler Stephenson. After platooning with Tucker Barnhart last season, Stephenson has been given the keys and will be the Cincinnati Reds everyday catcher next season. Whether his backup is Mark Kolozsvary, Andrew Knapp, or another backstop not yet on the roster is irrelevant. One should assume that last year's rookie should get 120-plus starts behind the dish in 2022.

FanGraphs predicts Stephenson to hit .266/.347/.402 with 10 homers, 45 RBIs, and be worth 1.9 fWAR. That's not a bad season to be sure, but it's a drop-off from Stephenson's rookie season when he hit .286/.366/.431 with 10 homers, 45 runs batted, and 2.0 fWAR.

Sorry, but I'm not seeing a sophomore slump from the Reds catcher in 2022. In fact, I think we'll see Stephenson find a home in the middle of the Cincinnati lineup and be given plenty of opportunities to drive in runs.

The moment never seemed too big for Tyler Stephenson last season, and I'm expecting more of the same from the Georgia native in 2022. I hesitate to put a number out there, because I believe the projected slash line isn't too far off from what we will see, but I think there's a lot more pop in Stephenson's bat and we may see him lead all NL catchers in homers next season.