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1 Reds prospect whose stock will skyrocket and 1 whose stock will plummet in 2022

By Drew Koch |
Cincinnati Reds outfielder Allan Cerda (86), left, Cincinnati Reds outfielder Lorenzo Cedrola (83) walk on the field.
Cincinnati Reds outfielder Allan Cerda (86), left, Cincinnati Reds outfielder Lorenzo Cedrola (83) walk on the field. / Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY
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The Cincinnati Reds have made a series of moves this offseason with a focus on improving the team's farm system. The Reds traded away Jesse Winker, Sonny Gray, and Eugenio Suárez with an eye toward the future.

In return, the Reds received left-handed prospect Brandon Williamson, right-handed pitchers Connor Phillips and Chase Petty, as well a couple of major league talents. The Cincinnati front office has stated that the best way for the team to remain competitive is to develop talent from within the organization.

We've already seen that with players like Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson last season. The Reds are hoping to have similar success with the likes of Jose Barrero, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Dauri Moreta, and others in 2022.

Which Reds prospects will have success in 2022?

While it's great to see a club's young talent flourish, it isn't always the case. Last season, we saw former first-round pick Austin Hendrick struggle mightily in his first professional season. The front office has not lost faith in Hendrick, but the fact that the 20-year-old is beginning the season at Low-Daytona signals that the outfielder needs to work out some kinks before advancing up the ladder.

On the flip side, Elly De La Cruz wowed scouts and evaluators last season. So much so that the shortstop has found his name among almost every outlet's Top 100 prospects list. De La Cruz enters the 2022 minor league season with big expectations, and the Reds brass are hopeful that he can live up to the hype.

So, that's what we're going to look at; a player in the mold of De La Cruz who's poised to rocket up the Reds prospect rankings in 2002, and a player who, unfortunately, is setup for fall similar to what we saw from Hendrick last season. So who will be the Cincinnati Reds' fastest riser in 2022 and who's bound to tumble down the rankings?

Allan Cerda at Cincinnati Reds Photo Day.
Allan Cerda at Cincinnati Reds Photo Day. / Sam Wasson/GettyImages

Reds OF prospect Allan Cerda's stock will skyrocket in 2022.

It should come as no surprise that Allan Cerda is my choice to skyrocket up through the Cincinnati Reds farm system this season. After a solid showing in the minors last season, Cerda was promoted to the Reds 40-man roster earlier this offseason.

It is strange to see a player who's yet to play above A-Ball join added to the 40-man roster in order to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. But, that should show you how much faith the Reds have in Cerda's ability. Last season, Cerda played 66 games at Low-A Daytona and slashed .242/.362/.524 with 14 home runs, 42 RBIs and a wRC+ of 136.

That performance earned the 22-year-old a promotion to High-A Dayton where he continued to punish opposing pitchers. Cerda appeared in 21 games for the Dragons and hit .273/.356/.519 with three round trippers and 13 runs batted in.

The Cincinnati Reds have a nice group of young outfield talent in the minor leagues, but Allan Cerda might be the most complete player in the group. Where Michael Siani is a glove-first centerfielder with a light bat and Austin Hendrick has power, but struck out 37.6% of the time, Cerda has a mix of power, speed, and athleticism that could make him a star at the next level.

Allan Cerda saw time in both right and center field last season. While Cerda definitely has the arm to play right field, the Cincinnati Reds would do best to let him continue to play up the middle until he proves otherwise. Can Cerda build on last year's success and vault up the Reds prospect rankings in 2022? I sure as heck wouldn't bet against him.

USA Baseball 18U National Team
USA Baseball 18U National Team / Brace Hemmelgarn/GettyImages

Reds OF prospect Michael Siani's stock will plummet in 2022.

This is one I really hope I get wrong because Michael Siani is arguably the best defensive outfielder in the entire Cincinnati Reds organization. The question surrounding Siani this year is the same one that has dogged the outfield prospect for his entire professional career; can he hit enough to be an everyday player?

Before I get into the negative, let me say that Siani has Gold Glove-caliber defensive talent. His speed and athleticism is second to none. But we saw the exact same thing with Billy Hamilton for years. Now, Hamilton is little more than a rotational outfielder.

If this were 20 years ago, Siani would already be on the big league roster. Team used to be able to have a defense-first centerfielder or shortstop who was a liability at the plate. The manager would batt said player eighth in the lineup and settle for a .225 batting average because of what the player could do defensively. But it's a different game now.

Teams and coaches expect every player in a uniform to be able to hit. Over his three-year career in the minors, Siani has hit .247/.332/.343 with a wRC+ of just 94. If Siani can't put up better numbers than that in A-Ball, what can we expect to see once he's promoted to Double-A or Triple-A?

We saw similar stuff out of former Cincinnati prospect Alfredo Rodriguez. The shortstop was a phenomenal defensive talent, but he never produced at the dish. In five minor league seasons, Rodriguez never produced a wRC+ above 100.

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Michael Siani had success in the Arizona Fall League last year, hitting .300/.451/.450. If that version of Siani is the one who steps into the batters' box during the 2022 season, then instead of plummeting, the 22-year-old will skyrocket up the Reds farm system. This looks to be a make-or-break season for Siani.

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