Pirates' Paul Skenes gamble is a mistake Reds must avoid with Chase Burns

The Cincinnati Reds should be paying close attention to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Paul Skenes hasn’t even pitched a full MLB season, yet he’s already one of the most dominant arms in baseball. The 6-foot-6 right-hander debuted in 2024 and didn’t need a ramp-up period — he stormed onto the scene with a 1.96 ERA, racking up 170 strikeouts over 133 innings while flashing ace-level command and poise beyond his years. 

And yet, despite owning arguably the best pitcher in baseball, the Pirates are playing with fire. While Skenes received a healthy $9.2 million signing bonus as the No. 1 overall pick in 2023, he remains under standard pre-arbitration control — making just $740,000 in 2024 and $875,000 in 2025. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2027, and free agency won’t come until 2029.

That means, barring a surprise extension, Skenes will pitch a portion of his prime at a deep discount — and potentially leave without the Pirates ever capitalizing on their best opportunity to contend. That’s the cautionary tale for the Reds.

The Reds should invest in Chase Burns and not ride the bargain like the Pirates are doing with Paul Skenes

Enter Chase Burns, the Reds' top prospect and the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 draft. The 21-year-old righty wasted no time making noise in the minors. Over his first 11 ⅔ innings, Burns has already piled up 20 strikeouts and was quickly promoted from High-A affiliate Dayton to Double-A Chattanooga. 

If Burns keeps ascending at this pace, it won’t be long before he’s knocking on the door of the Reds’ rotation. And even though Cincinnati is loaded with young starting arms, Burns is the type of talent who could force their hand, just as Skenes did with Pittsburgh. But there's a difference — the Reds have a chance to get it right.

While there’s no indication that Skenes is disgruntled, the Pirates’ decision not to proactively extend him is a high-stakes gamble. Yes, it’s a business. But there's a growing strategy where smart franchises lock down core talent early — not just for cost certainty, but to establish trust and stability.

The Reds shouldn’t wait. If Burns proves to be the ace he looks like, Cincinnati would be wise to offer him an extension through his arbitration years and even a couple of seasons into free agency. Locking in his prime years at below-market value gives the team cost control and gives Burns long-term security. It’s a win-win, and one that signals the Reds are serious about contending.

Because if they don’t? They risk wasting a generational arm, just like Pittsburgh might, and watching him walk without ever raising a trophy — or even threatening to.

Skenes is already that guy — a dominant force who should be the centerpiece of a title run. But instead of building around him with urgency, the Pirates are content riding the discount. If Burns is everything the Reds hope, they’ll soon be in the same position. The question is if they will play it smart or play with fire?

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