Nico Hoerner extension quietly puts Reds in tough spot with Matt McLain

Outside of Hunter Greene, the Cincinnati Reds have been woefully ineffective at securing extensions. While the way things have worked out with Greene so far might give the Reds pause to pursue any other early deals, the fact remains that smart small-market teams have leveraged this tool to keep their costs controlled and their key players in the fold.

Contrary to how Cincinnati has handled most of its business, the club had made an offer to Matt McLain last April, though the enigmatic second baseman quickly rejected it, and talks stalled. The attempt was (somewhat) similar to how the Athletics have conducted their operations, locking up young players following one breakout season.

McLain seemed to fit that bill as his rookie year in 2023 was a smashing success, though his sophomore campaign was delayed by a year thanks to shoulder surgery. After what transpired in 2025 with McLain crashing back down to earth with a .643 OPS, it seemed like McLain rebuffing Cincy might have been a blessing in disguise.

But after the UCLA product had a spring training for the ages, fueled by his ability to annihilate every type of pitch imaginable, the pendulum has swung back towards the Reds missing the boat yet again. Now, if the team wants to take another run at keeping the 26-year-old in the fold for the long haul, the price might've just gone up dramatically as the bitter rival Chicago Cubs have come to terms on a massive extension with their own star second baseman, Nico Hoerner.

Cubs-Nico Hoerner deal might've pushed Matt McLain out of the Reds' comfort zone

Hoerner signed a six year, $141 million deal, making it the fourth-largest deal for a second baseman in MLB history, behind superstars Robinson Cano, Marcus Semien, and Jose Altuve. That will set the market, but the conditions surrounding it are very different than those that would exist for McLain today.

Hoerner was in his final year of team control, while McLain isn't slated to hit free agency until after the 2029 season, so we're talking about apples and oranges at this point. All of the years the Cubs bought out for Hoerner were free-agent years, whereas if McLain were to sign a deal today the Reds would be buying out three arbitration years, depressing the overall value.

Hoerner and McLain are different players, as well. The Cubs star is a stellar defender with two Gold Gloves on his resume. Offensively, he's a contact maven with an unfathomably low strikeout rate, but a single-season high of just 10 homers.

McLain, if he's healthy and truly back to his 2023 form, brings dramatically more slug with and a lot more strikeouts. Defensively, he's good, but a clear notch or two below Hoerner's level.

There are some similarities, too, though. Despite the K's, McLain has the potential to post high averages similar to Hoerner, and both players are speedsters on the bases.

Homers are the single greatest factor when it comes to getting paid, so if McLain proves that his spring power surge is a true realization of the potential he showed in 2023, his market value will be sky-high relative to his position.

While McLain indicated last year that he would be willing to talk extension, the Reds' offer was too far off from what he was looking for. Though he's since dismissed Scott Boras as his agent, he was once a Boras client, and those guys almost always push to test free agency.

Reading between the lines, it seems McLain's preference would be to bet on himself and wait until he's in a similar position to Hoerner  —  close to free agency and able to maximize his market value  —  before he's serious about talking about a deal.

If that's the case, he'll be taking a risk, especially given his injury history, but his skills could also put him in a place where what he could command far exceeds what Hoerner received... and leaves Cincinnati's budget in the dust.

It's too early to get ahead of ourselves, but how McLain performs in 2026 will be crucial to determining how things break and could prompt some uncomfortable scenarios that the Reds must consider.