Nick Lodolo’s unique history should have Reds flirting with dangerous gamble

If the Cincinnati Reds are going to be more than just a blip on the radar of NL contenders, they're going to have to be smart with how they manage their assets. To date, they've become frustratingly slow to adapt to the times and extend their young players.

The Reds don't have the financial resources that most teams do, and that won't change anytime soon. That means future payrolls will stay within the bottom-third of the league, limiting the team's ability to pay market rate for talent. That cuts twice as deep. Not only does it mean that Cincinnati can't pay market-rate for external free agents, but they also can't afford to pay the fair market value to retain their own stars once they reach free agency.

The magic bullet is the extension game, but that's also a double-edged sword. Bet right, and you can halt the ballooning of salaries through the arbitration process and, if you get lucky, get a couple of free-agent years bought out at a slight discount. Guess wrong, and you end up with increasing salaries for unproductive players with no escape hatch, preventing the retention of actual deserving players.

The ultimate dice roll on the potential extension front could be coming to a contract extension with Nick Lodolo, but it might just be the kind of gamble the Reds need to take.

An extension for Nick Lodolo could be the perfect Reds gamble

The 28-year-old southpaw had a (mostly) healthy season in 2025, and fans finally saw him fulfill his potential as he found consistency on the mound. The baseball world at large took notice. The Athletic (subscription required) recently released their "Aces Project," which is essentially a ranking of the top 50 starters in the game, with similar arms grouped into different tiers.

Lodolo, on the strength of his talent and finally having a healthy and productive season, ranked 26th on the list. That's impressive, and there's room to elevate even further. Another healthy season, and we'll see the lanky lefty regularly regarded as one of the game's top aces.

That's why the Reds should act fast. Right now, Lodolo's injury history works against him in contract talks. He's averaged just 102 innings per season over the four years he's been in the bigs. If Cincinnati were to sign him now, they'd be doing so at a lower rate than they would if he put together another mostly healthy year.

Committing anything long-term might seem risky given that Lodolo is yet again on the IL to start the 2026 season. Fortunately, the news on that front is good, and he shouldn't be out for long.

Perusing Lodolo's injury history can be scary, but there's something else to glean from his litany of IL stints. He's avoided any truly major injuries. There's been no serious elbow or shoulder maladies and nothing in the way of chronic or degenerative injuries — think arthritic knees and balky backs as prime examples.

Assuming the past history drives down the price, coming to terms on extension could be just the type of deal that allows Cincinnati to stretch its budget. After all, fans know that the elite talent is there, and just because his ledger is full of past IL stints, there's nothing there to indicate such issues will continue. The price has got to be right, but if it is, there's no way that a deal won't be a huge win for the Reds.