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Nick Lodolo’s steady comeback could create an impossible Reds' trade dilemma

It could be time to move on.
Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo (40) pitches
Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo (40) pitches | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

The Cincinnati Reds are in an interesting spot these days; still alive in the playoff hunt, but on the outside looking in. The Reds have been dealt blows with injuries to key players like Hunter Greene, Elly De La Cruz, and Nick Lodolo throughout the season, just to name a few. It's made things pretty difficult to evaluate up to this point whether or not the team truly has the goods to contend.

Regardless of which direction proves to be the right path for Cincinnati to take, Lodolo presents an interesting case for the club, and no matter what happens, Nick Krall and company should be thinking hard about his future.

Entering the season, the lanky lefty was ranked among the best pitchers in the game, and when he's on and healthy, that is something that is readily apparent. However, the health part has always been his greatest question mark.

Lodolo missed an exorbitant amount of time from the end of spring training until his return on May 8 with a blister issue. Blisters have been a chronic bugaboo for the southpaw, and this time around, it took him a while to find his rhythm once he returned from the IL. Over his first three starts, Lodolo posted a 7.20 ERA while giving up four homers. However, since his May 25th outing against the New York Mets, he's begun to get back on track.

The turning point for Lodolo was that matchup against the Mets. Since then, he's put together four starts with an ERA of 3.91. There's still more that he could do, but it's an encouraging step in the right direction.

"He hit their leadoff guy with two breaking balls that he threw behind him. But other than that, he worked ahead, he threw a lot of strikes, he spun, he had good velocity, threw some changeups. That was really well done," Reds manager Terry Francona said after Lodolo's six-inning gem on May 25.

Despite the progress, and regardless of what happens, Cincinnati should seriously consider dealing Lodolo at the trade deadline.

Trading Nick Lodolo might be the Reds' best course of action

Regardless of where the Reds are in the standings, they should think long and hard about trading Lodolo if his turnaround continues and he stays healthy.

Teams obviously view the 28-year-old favorably, but given the fact that next season is his final year of team control, Cincinnati would get back significantly more by moving him at this year's deadline versus over the winter or next summer. Capitalizing on that value is important given the lack of financial resources the Reds possess.

Trading the lefty doesn't necessarily mean packing it in either. If the Reds are still in contention, he could be moved for a comparable win-now piece at a greater position of need. Despite all of the pieces brought in over the offseason, Cincinnati is still struggling to score runs consistently, and the bullpen leaks runs like a sieve.

With Hunter Greene still on target for a July return, he could easily replace Lodolo in the rotation, and a more balanced Reds team could keep on rolling.

On the flip side, should it become clear that the Reds can't get back in the race, flipping Lodolo for young talent that can grow next to Sal Stewart and their other top prospects would make some sense. This is where his team control matters; dealing him now versus over the offseason will result in a larger prospect package.

That would also open a rotation spot for one of the Reds' younger arms, like Chase Petty, Jose Franco, Julian Aguiar, and others. From there, Cincinnati can truly evaluate their worth as major leaguers.

For his part, Francona continues to hype up the veteran lefty. That doesn't necessarily mean anything on its face. Tito is almost always very positive when speaking about his players, but it's something that the rest of the league will take note of.

One way or another, it's starting to feel like trading Nick Lodolo is a must, regardless of where the Reds are sitting in the standings come August 3.

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