MLB pundit's bold prediction exposes growing gap between Reds plans and fans hopes

The Cincinnati Reds' lack of offensive upside heading into the 2026 season is quite apparent. The Reds ranked among the bottom-third of the league in both slugging percentage and home runs last season, but haven't added that big bat fans have been clamoring for all offseason.

Those same fans are unlikely to agree with Anthony Castrovince's latest prediction. A lead writer for MLB.com, Castrovince recently revisited a number of free agents who were assumed to return to their previous teams, but now look like they might sign elsewhere — a la Alex Bregman with the Chicago Cubs.

While Luis Arráez seemed like a slam dunk to re-sign with the San Diego Padres, the two sides have yet to come to an agreement. Doe to his contact-first approach at the plate, Arráez is likely to attract the attention of the Reds' brass. Though a number of fans would hate this move, Castrovince makes a compelling case for the three-time batting champion.

Luis Arraez to the Reds makes a ton of sense, but most fans would hate the move

If you love Statcast and advanced metrics, you're not going to like what Arráez brings to the table. According to Baseball Savant, the veteran ranks among the bottom of the league in stats like barrel rate, bat speed, and average exit velocity.

Now, if you're an old-school fan of the game, you'll love Arráez's approach to the game. He's a contact-heavy hitter who rarely strikes out (3.1% K-rate) and refuses to swing and miss (5.3% whiff rate). Since 2022, Arráez has posted a combined slash line of .318/.359/.417 with a 118 wRC+ and 115 OPS+. Though he brings little power to the lineup, Arraez does not give away at-bats.

Castrovince correctly points out that with the Reds playing half their games at Great American Ball Park, the home runs are going to come. While Cincinnati wasn't able to use GABP to their advantage last season, their 167 homers were only seven fewer than the 174 they crushed the year before — and that included a 43-game stretch in which Elly De La Cruz didn't record a round-tripper.

Arráez is defensively limited to a first base/ DH-type of role, and his left-handed swing would be redundant if Cincinnati chooses to retain Gavin Lux. But if the Reds were able to find a trade partner for Lux, adding Arráez to the roster suddenly becomes much more attractive.

Contract predictions for Arráez have been all over the map. He's still just 28 years old, but his defensive limitations and lack of power don't exactly set him up for a big-time pay day. Most experts assume Arráez will sign a shorter-deal worth approximately $10 million per season.

Arráez certainly fits the type of player Nick Krall talked about acquiring earlier this offseason, but fans want to see a masher in the middle of the lineup. The longer Arráez lingers on the open market, the more appealing he may become to the Reds' front office.