Matt McLain's arbitration estimate shouldn't scare the Reds away

MLB Trade Rumors recently released their annual arbitration projections, and the Cincinnati Reds have a dozen players who are in line to receive a pay raise heading into the 2027 season. No name on that list is sure to draw more scrutiny than Reds second baseman Matt McLain, who is estimated to receive $4 million next season.

McLain was Super Two eligible last offseason and signed a one-year, $2.3 million contract. If MLBTR is correct, he'll receive an increase of $1.7 million despite a second consecutive season of sub-par performance at the plate. McLain hit just .185/.274/.334 with 15 home runs, 40 RBI, 20 stolen bases, and a 67 wRC+ in 2026.

McLain broke onto the scene in a big way during his rookie season in 2023. He hit .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers, 50 RBI, and 14 steals that year, and were it not for an oblique injury that limited him to just 89 games, he might've been in the running for NL Rookie of Year. As it were, he finished fifth in the voting behind Corbin Carroll, Kodai Senga, James Outman, and Nolan Jones.

McLain missed all of the 2024 season after suffering a shoulder injury during spring training. He returned in 2025, but struggled to match the same level of production from his rookie season. Combined, he's hit just .204/.288/.339 with a 74 wRC+ over the past two seasons.

Reds General Manager Brad Meador spoke about McLain's struggles after the 2026 season, saying, "He got into a point where he was trying to swing his way out of it. He and the hitting guys broke down what the offseason needs to look like. It starts with being on the fastball.”

Reds depth at second base making keeping Matt McLain the right decision

Could the Reds non-tender McLain this offseason? Sure, but they shouldn't. Moving on from players after one or two down-years is not how you build a successful organization. That's not to suggest that Cincinnati shouldn't have optioned McLain to the minor leagues midway through the 2026 season, but Elly De La Cruz's injury and Edwin Arroyo's shortcomings certainly played a role in the team's decision making.

The Reds can't afford to just hand McLain the starting job at second base next season; he's going to have to earn it — something that he did during spring training this past March after hitting .509/.559/.981 in 18 Cactus League games. McLain not only earned a spot on the Reds' Opening Day roster, but was plugged in atop the batting order behind leadoff hitter TJ Friedl.

The Reds now have enough depth behind McLain at second base that he'll undoubtedly be feeling the pressure once spring training begins next year. If he finds his swing and puts up big numbers again next spring, he'll have to keep hitting throughout the season in order to keep his job.

Arroyo, Juan Brito, Oswaldo Cabrera, and even Spencer Steer can all cover duties at the keystone, though admittedly, none of those four are better defenders than McLain. Other than Steer and Cabrera — both of whom can cover multiple positions — the others will be making the league minimum, meaning they'll have an inexpensive replacement waiting in the wings.

Forking over $4 million to McLain might seem like a hefty sum given his production the past two seasons, but it'll be nothing short of a bargain if he actually plays up to his potential. Cincinnati cannot afford to quickly cut bait with these underperforming young players. Look how Christian Encarnacion-Strand turned things around after being traded to the Baltimore Orioles.

That stated, the Reds cannot be afraid to option McLain to the minor leagues — much like they did with Friedl this past season — if he fails to meet expectations. If things get really bad, designating him for assignment during the season could be on the table.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow