Latest Reds prospect rankings reveal Cincy's flawed draft strategy just isn't working

MLB talent evaluator Keith Law of The Athletic (subscription required) recently released his latest prospect rankings ahead of the 2025 season. The Cincinnati Reds had their consensus five prospects (Chase Burns, Rhett Lowder, Chase Petty, Cam Collier, and Sal Stewart) ranked among Law's top-100.

Most outlets tend to mirror Law's assertion that the quintet of Burns, Lowder, Petty, Collier, and Stewart will all become major league-caliber players with all five likely to earn a key role either the starting rotation or the lineup in the near future.

But Law's rankings reveal the same troubling issue as other prospect evaluators — the Reds lack outfield depth in their farm system. Much like MLB Pipeline, The Athletic placed just two outfielders — Hector Rodriguez and Kyle Henley — among the organization's top-20 prospects.

Latest Reds prospect rankings reveal Cincy struggles to draft and develop outfielders

The Reds' lack of outfield depth in the minor leagues is a direct result of their drafting strategy. Cincinnati prioritizes up-the-middle athletes, which is why the organization seems to have 473 shortstops in their farm system.

Nick Krall has been very open about the team's philosophy of targeting shortstops, centerfielders, catchers, and pitchers. While that's not the worst blueprint for success (and one that other teams like the San Diego Padres have employed over the years), Cincinnati has failed in the development aspect and the results have yet to yield anything positive.

Reds fans have seen this play itself out at the major league level as well. None of the club's outfielders who are on the 40-man roster were ever considered top prospects. Sure, Rece Hinds has prodigious power, but he's also going to strikeout 40% of the time. Jacob Hurtubise and Blake Dunn are elite athletes, but neither was highly-decorated coming out of college. Cincinnati's best outfielder — TJ Friedl — went undrafted.

The Reds have tried to transform infielders like Nick Senzel into outfielders

Fans also witnessed the failed experiment of transitioning Nick Senzel from an infielder to an outfielder, but that hasn't stopped the organization from giving Spencer Steer a chance to stick in the outfield after spending his entire minor league career on the infield dirt.

And the result of Cincinnati's failed strategy (to date), is a gaping hole in the outfield. What's the one position that the Reds have failed to address through the draft since Nick Castellanos left and Jesse Winker was traded in 2022? The Reds have tried to fix it with stopgap solutions like Tommy Pham, Wil Myers, and Hunter Renfroe, but those trials have failed miserably.

While targeting one specific type of player in the draft is also unwise, it wouldn't hurt the Reds to grab an outfielder in Round 1 or 2 during the 2025 MLB Draft. The Reds passed on Charlie Condon last summer in favor of Burns. And while that may ultimately work out well, the fact remains that the cupboard is bare. Failed prospects like Jay Allen II and Austin Hendrick haven't helped either.

Krall and Co. need to change their strategy or swap some of their young infield talent in order to bolster the organization's outfield depth in the minor leagues. It's time for a change, because the team's current strategy isn't working.

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